Donald Trump's own voters are being hit hardest by the housing affordability crisis that has deepened under his presidency, according to a new analysis from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.
Home Prices Surge 30% Since 2020
The report, released Wednesday, found that the median home price in the United States has risen by 30% since the start of 2020, far outpacing wage growth. The sharpest increases have been in counties that voted for Trump in 2020, many of which are in the South and Midwest.
“The places that voted for President Trump are the same places where housing has become least affordable,” said Daniel McCue, a senior researcher at the center. “These are communities that were already struggling with stagnant wages and limited housing supply, and the pandemic made things much worse.”
Rural and Suburban Areas Hit Hard
The analysis examined housing cost burdens in over 3,000 counties nationwide. It found that in Trump-voting counties, the share of households spending more than 30% of their income on housing rose from 28% in 2019 to 34% in 2025. In counties that voted for Joe Biden, the increase was smaller, from 30% to 33%.
“The gap is widening,” McCue said. “Trump voters are increasingly cost-burdened, and they have fewer options for affordable rentals or homeownership.”
Policy Factors Behind the Crisis
The report points to several policy decisions under Trump that have exacerbated the problem. The 2017 tax overhaul, which capped the state and local tax deduction, disproportionately affected high-tax states but also reduced incentives for homeownership in some areas. Meanwhile, Trump's trade wars and immigration restrictions have contributed to labor shortages in construction, driving up building costs.
“Tariffs on lumber and other materials have made new homes more expensive,” McCue noted. “And restrictions on immigration have reduced the pool of construction workers, slowing the pace of new housing starts.”
Interest Rates and Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes under Trump's watch have also made mortgages more costly. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed from 3.5% in early 2020 to over 7% in mid-2026, pricing out many first-time buyers.
“Low interest rates were a key factor driving demand during the pandemic,” McCue said. “Now that rates have doubled, many potential buyers are locked out of the market, especially in areas where prices have risen the most.”
Rental Market Squeeze
Renters in Trump-voting counties have not been spared. The report found that median rents in those areas have increased by 22% since 2020, while incomes have grown only 12%. As a result, a record number of renters are now spending more than half their income on housing.
“We're seeing a surge in evictions and homelessness in these communities,” McCue said. “The safety net is frayed, and there's little relief in sight.”
Local Responses and Federal Inaction
Some local governments in Trump-voting areas have tried to address the crisis by loosening zoning restrictions or offering tax incentives for affordable housing. But without federal action, these efforts have had limited impact.
“The federal government has the tools to make a difference, but there's been no comprehensive housing strategy from the White House,” McCue said. “Instead, we've seen cuts to housing vouchers and community development block grants.”
The report comes as Trump's approval ratings on the economy have slipped, with housing affordability emerging as a top concern for voters. A recent Pew Research Center poll found that 67% of Americans say housing costs are a major problem in their local area, up from 54% in 2020.
“This is a pocketbook issue that cuts across party lines,” McCue said. “But the data shows that Trump's own base is feeling the pain most acutely.”
