Western Australia has emerged as the sole bright spot in the nation's employment landscape, recording a significant increase in job vacancies while other regions experienced a decline. Fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals the state's labour market is entering 2026 on a firmer footing than the rest of the country.
WA Defies National Downturn in Employment Openings
In the year leading up to November 2025, job vacancies in Western Australia climbed by 4 per cent. This growth stands in stark contrast to the national picture, where openings fell by 5 per cent over the same period. This makes WA the only Australian region to post an annual increase, offering a beacon of hope for local job-seekers.
The detailed figures highlight a clear divergence between public and private sector demand. Over the three months to November, private sector job openings in WA dipped by 0.5 per cent. Conversely, government-backed vacancies saw a rise of 1.8 per cent, indicating that the public sector continues to dominate the state's employment market.
Economists Weigh In on Broader Labour Trends
Commonwealth Bank economist Harry Ottley commented on the broader national context, noting the labour market is "gradually softening from previous extremely tight conditions." He attributed strong employment gains in recent years to sustained labour demand, which has kept Australia's market tighter than comparable economies.
Ottley pointed out that a substantial portion of recent growth has been concentrated in the taxpayer-funded care economy. "A key uncertainty for the broader labour market is how growth in non‑market employment will evolve after a recent slowing," he said. "Vacancies suggest that there is still plenty of demand for labour in non‑market sectors."
Nationally, the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, sitting at 4.3 per cent as of the latest data. Western Australia's rate is slightly higher at 4.6 per cent.
Implications for the Reserve Bank and Borrowers
The resilience of the labour market, particularly in regions like WA, remains a key consideration for the Reserve Bank of Australia. As the RBA board prepares for its February 2026 meeting, markets are assessing the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening, with some pricing in a one-in-four chance of an interest rate hike.
Economists at ANZ, Aaron Luk and Adelaide Timbrell, maintained their forecast for the cash rate to hold at 3.6 per cent for an extended period. However, they cautioned, "we think the risks of a rate hike in early 2026 have risen. And if the RBA hikes in 2026, we think that would be more likely to occur in the first half of the year than the second."
Borrowers received a sliver of positive news recently, with core inflation for the year to November coming in at 3.2 per cent, slightly below expectations. Nevertheless, strong household spending data released shortly after is likely to reinforce the central bank's cautious, hawkish stance as it navigates the balance between curbing inflation and supporting employment.
