The Victorian government's recent announcement on puppy protection laws may be the only policy capable of improving the dire polling numbers for Premier Jacinta Allan, who faces an uphill battle just 21 weeks out from the state election on the last Saturday of November.
Polling Reveals Unpopularity and Unfamiliarity
A RedBridge poll indicates that Allan's only standout score is in unpopularity. Her opponent, Liberal leader Jess Wilson, struggles with being unknown to nearly 20% of the 5,000 respondents surveyed.
Allan frequently faces questions at press conferences about her apparent lack of curiosity regarding credible accounts of serious corruption allegedly siphoning billions from government infrastructure projects. An opinion piece in The Age on Thursday suggested a change in strategy, but Allan only expressed regret over the waste and a desire to prevent recurrence.
Royal Commission Debate
While Allan argues that a royal commission would primarily benefit barristers' children's orthodontists, the collateral damage might be that bikies, thugs, and standover merchants would need alternative sources to fund their appetite for bling, luxury cars, and cryptocurrencies.
Wilson's struggle to establish her identity is compounded by Victorians having seen five opposition leaders in five years.
Liberal Party Distractions
The Liberal Party faces distractions from backbencher Moira Deeming, who allegedly could not distinguish between a headlock and a pat on the shoulder. Victoria Police quickly dismissed Deeming's claim of assault by former leader Matthew Guy. Some Liberal power brokers moved to disendorse her, but the state opposition told the court it would not act while legal proceedings are underway, as Deeming seeks a Supreme Court injunction to remain a Liberal.
Greens and Emerging Parties
Victoria was once the Greens' happy place, with Richard Di Natale and Adam Bandt providing federal leadership from Melbourne's inner-north. However, recent polling suggests they are struggling. Post-COVID teenagers casting their first vote in 2026 were 14 when Daniel Andrews won in 2022 and 10 when he won in 2018; the Greens are now part of the establishment to them.
Younger voters are looking elsewhere, with the Victorian Socialists gaining momentum from recruitment at weekly pro-Palestine protests, challenging the Greens and ALP in inner-city seats. A hung parliament could see Socialists and Greens holding the balance of power.
International Trends
In the US, disillusioned voters elected socialist-lite Zohran Mamdani in New York City, and in Colorado, 29-year-old democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated 68-year-old Democrat Diana DeGette. Ignoring this trend could be perilous.
One Nation's Potential
One Nation's inroads in Victoria, historically immune to Pauline Hanson's appeal, depend on a local leader stepping forward. Past performances have been dysfunctional, with internal contradictions and preselection of nutters as Achilles heels. However, investment by Gina Rinehart and campaign experience from former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce may deliver a different outcome.
Historical Context
In 2022, Daniel Andrews was returned with an increased majority despite predictions from Murdoch papers and commercial radio shock jocks. Both Allan and Wilson have major policy initiatives to come and need to define their vision for a state experiencing rapid economic and population growth.
If polling is correct, a slight majority of Victorians have decided how they will vote, but a significant undecided or soft vote leaves the outcome uncertain. In 1999, Steve Bracks faced Jeff Kennett with a high undecided vote until election eve; Kennett was polarising, and the undecideds were weighing up the unknown Bracks. The 2026 election may shape up similarly.
