In the end, it wasn't even close, Andy Burnham taking well over 50% of the vote and Rob Kenyon departing the stage without a murmur, never to be heard of again. Rob will probably be happier that way. He never looked as if he was much enjoying the attention of being the candidate for Reform in Makerfield.
After a brief acceptance speech at the count, Burnham reappeared six hours later at Ashton Town FC for the celebration rally proper. Flanked by several MPs waving 'Andy for Us' placards, and one notable ex-MP in Josh Simons who had vacated the seat for the coronation, Andy was all smiles in the sunshine. He had even swapped out the slightly too tight black T-shirt for a slightly too tight white polo shirt. This was him dressing up for the occasion. He can do formal when he tries.
A Coronation Like No Other
It was all rather surreal. A byelection that felt more like a general election. And that was certainly Burnham's vibe. His speech was one that could have been made by a new incoming Labour prime minister who had just ousted a much-hated Tory government. In fact, he might have lifted huge chunks of it from the one Keir Starmer had given outside Downing Street less than two years previously. You could be forgiven for wondering just which parallel universe you were now living in.
"What a scene, what a campaign," he began as he thanked the volunteers and people of Makerfield who had helped elect him to Westminster. Then a special thanks to Simons for having made way. Who had understood the message – the instruction – to change that had been given by voters at the May local elections and had made the ultimate sacrifice for the once and future king. Not just king of the north. But king of the whole UK. Move over, Charlie. There's a new kid in town. He made it sound like a grail quest.
The Mystic with a Mission
This was the last chance to change. The country had been given a bonus shot at redemption. The previous government had failed. Had let down the very people who had placed their trust in it. He was talking of Starmer. Not Rishi Sunak or any of the four Tory prime ministers before him. Andy was the outsider: the mystic with a sacred mission. And he sounded the part. An economy that worked for everyone, not just the few. If a policy wasn't good for Makerfield, it wasn't good enough for the country. Industry, education and the NHS would flourish anew.
Then to the communion. The most sacred part of the speech. Tory, Lib Dem and Reform supporters had lent him their votes. Hope had triumphed over darkness. There would be no more division. Today would go down in history as the moment that changed the nation. There would be no more sadness. No more despair. A change was a-coming. And Andy would work relentlessly to make it happen. All you needed was a bit of faith. Only the glory days lay ahead.
The Missing Leader
Burnham fell back. Overwhelmed with emotion. Wondering if perhaps he had oversold his victory. These were promises we had all heard before from other prime minister-designates, yet time and again they had been broken on the wheel of incompetence, party politics and reality. Andy sounded different to the others. There again, the new kid on the block often does. Because, deep down, we all need a reason to believe. But when the levels of hope are this high, so too are the depths of possible disappointment. Somehow, though, just saying you will do your best is not enough. We all need a promised land.
There was just one thing missing. Or rather, one person missing. Normally, after a party wins a landmark byelection, the leader airlifts himself to the constituency for a photo op with their new MP. To bask in the reflected glory. But Keir was nowhere to be seen. His first reaction had been to post a curt "congrats" on X. Along with the message that voters had responded to "Labour's message of hope". Only, they hadn't. They had responded to Burnham's message of hope. The hope that Andy would be the next prime minister. No one in Makerfield had been in any doubt just how high the stakes were and what they had been voting for.
Shortly before Andy manifested himself at Ashton FC, Keir did a TV clip in Barnet, about 200 miles to the south, where he insisted the real news of the day was his scheme to make housebuying more transparent. "We've done incredible things," he said. Things that people thought were impossible.
A Party in Chaos?
"I will stand in any leadership contest." Sometimes it feels as if Labour is dead set on replicating the chaos of the Tory years. There was a sadness in Keir's refusal to read the room. It may not be fair, but his time is over. There is no coming back from this. Even his most loyal MPs were now realising the game was up. Maybe over the weekend, sense will prevail. His wife will have a word. He deserves better than to be allowed to preside over his own humiliation.
Though he still had one supporter. Keir will always have his Steve Reed. "I'm not in denial," Steve denied during the morning media round. For Steve, Burnham's success was a triumph for Brand Starmer. What was needed was a period of calm reflection. Andy to settle in as a backbench MP, while Keir ran the country. Besides, Andy was most needed now as the man to win the vacant Manchester mayoralty. In ReedWorld, Burnham is trapped in a never-ending Escher etching: forever resigning either the mayoralty or his constituency to fight whichever his victory in the other had just left vacant. Poor Steve. This hasn't been a great year for him.
Reform's Disappointment
One other person not much in evidence was Nigel Farage. This had been a terrible night for Reform. If Makerfield had voted as it had in the May local elections, Kenyon would have won with a majority of 8,000. Burnham's victory showed the country was not hellbent on putting Reform in Downing Street. Still, at least Nige hadn't spent any of his £5m handout on the campaign. So things weren't all bad.
Instead, Farage made do with a sulky video, yet again made in a field. He's always in a field these days. The only place he can be sure no one will ask him awkward questions about his slush funds. He had been expecting a disappointing night, he said. He really hadn't. Not this disappointing. "Reform is still the leading party of the centre right," he added. Except it isn't. There is nothing centre-right about Reform. They are much further from the middle than that. Something more than half the Makerfield voters understood only too well.
