Former Fire and Rescue NSW Commissioner Greg Mullins has warned that this year's El Niño could spark a return of fires similar to the devastating Black Summer, with the summer of 2027-28 posing the greatest risk.
Warning from Former Commissioner
Mullins says while this coming summer could still bring dangerous fire conditions, it is the year after the current El Niño pattern that has him most concerned. “We could have a bad summer, but the year after El Niño – the summer of 2027-28 – that could be a very bad fire season,” he said. He warned it could bring “very serious fires, not unlike Black Summer.”
Historical Context: 1994 Northern Beaches Fires
The warning comes more than three decades after the devastating 1994 Northern Beaches bushfires, which tore through suburbs including Terry Hills, Ingleside, Elanora Heights and western Mona Vale. “It was very lucky that lives weren’t lost,” Mullins said.
Areas at Risk
He believes large parts of Sydney’s bushland fringe could face heightened risk, including the Northern Beaches, Hornsby, The Hills, Hawkesbury, Penrith, the Blue Mountains, Campbelltown and Sutherland.
NSW RFS Urges Preparedness
The NSW Rural Fire Service is urging residents to prepare well before the fire season begins. “Our recommendation to communities is to get out there and prepare their homes for the bushfire season. Make sure they have a bushfire survival plan,” NSW RFS Commissioner Trent Curtin said.
Planning and Safety Concerns
Mullins said future planning decisions also need to better consider bushfire risk. “We really need to take safety seriously, and that’s where we place houses and how we build them,” he said.
Mona Vale Development Concerns
The warning comes as residents continue to raise concerns about new housing planned for Mona Vale, one of 171 locations across New South Wales affected by the state’s low and mid-rise housing reforms. More than 80 units have already been approved on Darley Street West, with further development possible under the new planning changes.
Community group SOS Mona Vale says the suburb’s evacuation routes and ageing infrastructure are already under pressure. “There’s two roads in and out, but there’s always gridlock at the joining of Mona Vale Road and Pittwater Road,” spokesman John David said. “Those roads are our only evacuation point in case of major bushfire events.”
Civil engineer Angus Gordon said key infrastructure was never designed to support the level of growth now being proposed. “The designs for the infrastructure for this area, particularly water and sewerage, were done in the 1960s and early 1970s,” he said.
Government Defends Planning Reforms
The NSW Government says the housing reforms were subject to extensive assessment before sites were selected. Planning Minister Paul Scully said in a statement: “Our Low and Mid-Rise housing reforms were developed with a rigorous site selection process that included assessment of hazards and constraints such as flood, bushfire and emergency evacuation. The assessment also took into consideration infrastructure capacity and capacity to expand as required. This included water, wastewater, transport, education and health infrastructure.”
Premier Chris Minns defended the need for more housing across the state. “We need more housing for New South Wales, and everyone’s got to do their bit,” he said.
