Two federal polls conducted partly after Pauline Hanson's June 17 National Press Club address show One Nation's surge continuing, gaining two points on primary votes in both DemosAU and Morgan polls, reaching 30% and 31.5% respectively. The Coalition suffered a five-point slump in DemosAU, improving Labor's position, while Morgan showed the right vote up 2.5 points to 49%, with Labor leading One Nation by just 51–49 after preferences.
DemosAU Poll Details
A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted June 16–18 from a sample of 1,497, gave One Nation 30% primary vote (up two since May), Labor 27% (up one), Coalition 18% (down five), Greens 13% (steady), and Others 12% (up two). No two-party estimate was provided, but seat ranges gave Labor 71–81 seats (previously 65–74), One Nation 54–63 (previously 47–58), Coalition 4–11 (18–28), Greens 0–4 (1–5), and others 4–8 (2–6). The combined One Nation/Coalition vote dropped three points to 48%, improving Labor's chances of forming government with a majority. Anthony Albanese's net positive score fell three points to -23 (49% negative, 26% positive), Angus Taylor's fell seven points to -6 (28% negative, 22% positive), and Hanson's fell six points to -3 (40% negative, 37% positive). In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 35% (up one), Hanson 28% (up one), and Taylor 19% (down four). Net approval of ending negative gearing fell four points to +1 (32% approve, 31% disapprove), scrapping capital gains tax discount fell three points to -4 (33–29 disapprove), and a minimum 30% tax rate on family trusts fell ten points to -17 (41–24 disapprove).
Morgan Poll Results
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 15–21 from a sample of 1,575, gave One Nation 31.5% primary vote (up two), Labor 27% (down one), Coalition 17.5% (up 0.5), Greens 13.5% (down 0.5), and Others 10.5% (down one). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 51–49, a two-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition.
UK: Burnham Set to Become PM
At last Thursday's UK parliamentary byelection for Makerfield, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (Labour) defeated Reform by 54.8–34.5, with 6.8% for Restore. Labour defeated Reform in Makerfield in 2024 by 45.2–31.8. Labour PM Keir Starmer announced on Monday he would resign once a new leader was chosen. With nobody else likely to obtain the 81 required signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham is set to become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17. Reform has been leading Labour in UK national polls since April 2025. Labour had dismal results at May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections.
NSW Poll: One Nation Overtakes Coalition
The New South Wales election is in March 2027. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted June 15–18 from a sample of 1,038, gave Labor 32% primary vote (down two since February), One Nation 27% (up six), Coalition 20% (down three), Greens 13% (down two), and Others 8% (up one). No two-party estimate was provided, but Labor would be far ahead given the split in the right vote and NSW's optional preferential voting. In the upper house, Labor had 30%, One Nation 27%, Coalition 20%, Greens 13%, and nobody else more than 1%. Half of the 42 upper house seats will be up for election using statewide proportional representation with preferences.
House of Representatives Seat Numbers Unchanged
The electoral commission will determine in July how many seats each state and territory has at the next election. ABC election analyst Antony Green said last Thursday that, based on December 2025 population estimates, there will be no change: NSW 46, Victoria 38, Queensland 30, Western Australia 16, South Australia 10, Tasmania 5, ACT 3, NT 2. Queensland's quotient was 30.42 seats, just short of the 30.5 that would have given a 31st seat. Tasmania should have only three seats by population but gets five as the minimum for all states. Federal electorate redistributions will be needed in Tasmania, ACT, SA, and Queensland.
