Donald Trump claims to have mastered the Art of the Deal, but his handling of Iran has been a master class in negotiating incompetence. His unprovoked war of choice has accomplished nothing and cost the world greatly, setting back efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program, reduce its regional aggression, and improve human rights.
Back to Square One
Trump is now reviewing a proposed memorandum of understanding (MOU) drafted by American and Iranian diplomats with help from Pakistan and Qatar. The MOU would extend the current ceasefire for 60 days while a permanent peace accord is negotiated. This is a profound embarrassment for Trump, as it essentially returns to the status quo before his war, with no progress on key issues like uranium enrichment or ballistic missiles.
To understand Trump's failure, compare his approach with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by Barack Obama. That deal limited Iran's enrichment to 3.67% uranium-235, far below the 90% needed for a bomb, and subjected it to intrusive inspections. Iran exported 11 tonnes of enriched uranium to Russia, eliminating its path to a bomb. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, vowing a better deal, but instead Iran now possesses nearly half a tonne of 60% enriched uranium, a short hop from weapons-grade.
War's Futility
Trump's bombing campaign, urged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aimed to decapitate the regime and spark an uprising. Instead, it empowered hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The Iranian dictatorship, which had already killed at least 7,000 protesters, remained more concerned with retaining power than with civilian welfare. Trump had no plan B, claiming to destroy Iran's missile and drone capacity while depleting US stockpiles and leaving most of Iran's arsenal intact.
The war also turned the Strait of Hormuz from a theoretical into an actual weapon. With one fifth of the world's oil and LNG passing through, its closure has caused far-reaching economic consequences. Iran has compounded this by attacking Gulf Arab oil and gas facilities. Trump, desperate to reopen the strait ahead of midterm elections, is now punting on nuclear questions—the ostensible reason for the war.
Worse Off Than Before
The MOU reportedly includes Iran disavowing its intention to build a bomb, but defers limits on enrichment and neutralization of its enriched uranium to later talks. Issues like ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies are absent. In February, before the war, the same issues were on the table without the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Now, Tehran is demanding release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, and a reconstruction fund—far more than Trump criticized Obama for allowing.
Iran is also insisting the ceasefire extend to Israel's operations in Lebanon, where Israel has displaced 1 million people. Israel continues attacks, reducing villages to rubble, and reserves the right to respond to threats, a formula used to keep killing Palestinians. The MOU may require unrestricted passage through the strait, but Iran may impose surrogates like environmental fees.
Lessons and Path Forward
Trump must repudiate Netanyahu's preference for endless war—"mowing the grass"—and prioritize negotiation. Military force should be a last resort under the UN Charter, especially since Iran's drones, sea mines, and speedboats have imposed enormous costs on the US and global economy. Trump has leverage through frozen assets and sanctions, allowing incremental give-and-take.
The solution should focus on denying Iran the means to build a bomb, without demanding it forgo modest enrichment (allowed under the NPT). Pairing limited enrichment with intrusive inspections can prevent secret bomb development. Trump must also accept creative solutions to neutralize Iran's 60% enriched uranium, such as dilution, monitoring, or export.
Most importantly, Trump must put national and global interests above his own. Despite his ability to spin reality, selling this debacle as a victory will be hard. He must accept a deal, even if it reveals him as a master bungler rather than a master dealmaker.
