As the UK marks the tenth anniversary of its Brexit referendum, Iceland is approaching its own moment of truth about the European Union, albeit from the opposite direction. On August 29, Icelanders will vote on whether to resume negotiations with Brussels about joining the EU. Iceland originally applied in 2009 after the financial crash but withdrew talks in 2013, citing the need for a referendum.
Geopolitical Context and Trump's Influence
Iceland's youngest-ever prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, had previously expected a referendum in 2027. However, Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland accelerated the timeline. The sudden geopolitical focus on the Arctic prompted the government to bring the vote forward.
Fear of invasion by a US president who has difficulty distinguishing Iceland from Greenland has convinced some Icelanders of the need to join the EU. Yet the island remains divided, and Brexit has become a watchword for both sides.
Pro-EU and Eurosceptic Camps
For the pro-EU camp, British Leave campaign misinformation and the UK's struggles since Brexit serve as cautionary tales. Foreign minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir stated, "I am fearing that we will face a Brexit moment," referencing disputed claims about UK payments to the EU. She added that Brexit "should be an example of how not to run a campaign."
In the Eurosceptic camp, the UK's difficulties in leaving on its terms are presented as strong reasons not to join. Haraldur Ólafsson from anti-EU group Heimssýn told the Reykjavík Grapevine, "The EU wanted to make Britain's departure as painful as possible. What is lost in one day can take many hundreds of years to get back."
Public Opinion and Key Issues
Polls show the pro-EU campaign has work to do. A recent Gallup poll found 54% opposed joining the EU and 46% in favour. Another poll indicated 53% would vote yes to resuming talks, with 47% opposed. Even if Icelanders vote yes, they will have a second referendum on any negotiated terms.
Fishing is the biggest issue. The total value of fisheries assets in 2023 was about €7.3 billion. The EU has hinted at a possible exemption for Iceland. Another major topic is the euro; Iceland has a history of high inflation and high interest rates, and many Icelanders might prefer adopting the euro over joining the EU.
Sovereignty and Independence
The most emotive argument is sovereignty, deeply rooted in Iceland's national identity. Iceland only gained full independence from Denmark in 1944. Recent events in Greenland have reminded Icelanders of their vulnerability. Politics professor Hulda Þórisdóttir said, "This idea of a hard fought independence is very much still alive with the Icelandic national soul."
Pro-EU campaigners argue that a strong alliance with European nations can strengthen Iceland's sovereignty, countering the feeling of being "alone at sea" outside the EU.
Challenges Ahead
The referendum is shaping up to be contentious, with support for the EU on both sides of the political spectrum. Þórisdóttir noted, "The loudest voices are probably the most extreme. The vast majority of ordinary people trying to weigh the pros and cons may feel lacking in good information."
Experts warn that Iceland may struggle to ensure voters have clear, correct information, especially given the potential for AI tools to alter election dynamics.
Flying between Reykjavík and Nuuk in January, it was difficult to ignore how isolated both islands are. Whether or not Icelanders vote to restart EU negotiations, Brussels will remain geographically distant.
