A new study warns that extreme heat driven by climate change could slash labour productivity across Europe by up to 2.2 percent by 2060, dealing a significant blow to economic growth. The research, published by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, found that rising temperatures will particularly affect southern European nations, where some sectors could see productivity drops of more than 50 percent during peak heat periods.
Study highlights worst-hit regions and sectors
The study, titled "The Impact of Extreme Heat on Labour Productivity and Economic Growth in Europe," analysed data from 30 European countries. It projects that without adaptation measures, the continent could lose €1.2 trillion in cumulative economic output by 2060. Southern Europe, including countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, faces the greatest risk, with labour productivity losses ranging from 1.5 to 2.2 percent annually. In contrast, northern nations such as Sweden and Finland may see minimal impacts, with losses below 0.5 percent.
Agriculture, construction, and manufacturing are identified as the most vulnerable sectors. In southern Europe, agricultural productivity could fall by up to 50 percent during extreme heat events, while construction and manufacturing face losses of 30 to 40 percent. The service sector, including tourism, is also affected, with potential declines of 10 to 15 percent in outdoor and non-air-conditioned environments.
Economic and policy implications
"Extreme heat is not just an environmental issue but a major economic threat," said Dr. Elena Martinez, lead author of the study. "Our findings show that without urgent adaptation, the economic costs of heat stress will escalate dramatically, widening regional inequalities." The report calls for policy interventions including improved building insulation, expanded green spaces, and changes in working hours to reduce exposure during peak heat.
The European Commission has already launched initiatives such as the EU Adaptation Strategy, which aims to boost resilience to climate impacts. However, the study emphasises that current measures may be insufficient. The projected GDP losses could be reduced by up to 60 percent if countries invest heavily in adaptation, such as air conditioning and heat-resistant infrastructure.
Broader context and future risks
Europe has experienced record-breaking heatwaves in recent years, including the summer of 2023, which was the hottest on record. The study notes that the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events will continue to rise under all climate scenarios. Even with aggressive emissions reductions, some level of warming is already locked in, making adaptation critical.
The findings align with previous research by the International Labour Organization, which estimated that heat stress could reduce global working hours by 2.2 percent by 2030. Europe, while less affected than tropical regions, is still vulnerable due to ageing infrastructure and a high proportion of outdoor workers in sectors like agriculture and tourism.
Call for urgent action
"The time to act is now," added Dr. Martinez. "Governments, businesses, and communities must work together to implement heat action plans and protect workers." The study recommends establishing national heat warning systems, providing cooling facilities, and promoting flexible work arrangements. It also urges the European Union to integrate heat risk into economic planning and investment decisions.
Without such measures, the economic burden will fall disproportionately on southern Europe, exacerbating existing disparities within the EU. The study concludes that proactive adaptation could save hundreds of billions of euros and safeguard millions of jobs.
