The AFL season has reached its halfway point, with bye rounds underway and plenty of analysis of the action so far. In an era where individual talking points often dominate, the bigger picture can sometimes be overlooked. A quick look at the AFL ladder reveals significant change is happening.
While much can still unfold in the coming months, two teams have established a clear lead over the rest of the competition. One of them missed finals entirely last year, while the other was eliminated in the first week of September. Fremantle and Sydney have been the standout success stories of 2026, with the Dockers on an 11-game winning streak and the Swans boasting a 10-2 record, sitting one and a half wins ahead of Hawthorn in third. Fremantle holds a three-game buffer over fourth-placed Geelong.
Can the Dockers and Swans Maintain Momentum?
There remains varying degrees of skepticism about both teams' premiership credentials. In Fremantle's case, this stems partly from a lack of finals experience relative to other contenders like Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, or Brisbane (should the Lions recover from their current slump). The Dockers' list averages just two finals appearances per player, compared to eight for Geelong and Brisbane, five for Sydney, and four for Hawthorn.
This difference is considerable and provides valid reasoning for doubt. However, doubts about Sydney are more nuanced, focusing on their recent grand final failures. The Swans have lost four grand finals since their 2012 flag, three of them by large margins under former coach John Longmire. But how relevant is that history? Only five players on Sydney's current list were part of the 2014 or 2016 losses, and the 2022 team was still raw, conceding significant experience to Geelong.
Changing Dynamics of Finals Success
The bigger question is whether traditional concerns about finals experience matter as much as they once did. Richmond in 2017 and Melbourne in 2021 both won drought-breaking flags despite limited previous finals experience, steamrolling their way through September. Even the best teams today are less dominant and reliable than in the past. Winning a premiership increasingly depends on timing, with every team prone to lulls during the season. This is why it may be premature to write off Brisbane, despite their struggles.
Brisbane's 2024 premiership team won just 14.5 of 23 games and finished fifth, needing to win three of four finals on the road, including a comeback from 44 points down. Last year, they won 16.5 games and lost their first final before finding form. This contrasts sharply with the dominance of Hawthorn in 2013, the only other time Fremantle reached a grand final. That year, the Hawks won 19 of 22 games. Geelong in 2011 also won 19 games, beating a Collingwood side that had 20 wins. Win tallies of 17-18 were common a decade ago, but are now the exception.
Ceiling and Timing Matter More
Understanding a team's ceiling and ensuring it peaks in September is crucial. Fremantle and Sydney have shown strong form, beating Brisbane comfortably, with Fremantle also defeating Hawthorn and leading Geelong by six goals before a narrow loss. Sydney has beaten five top-10 teams, with both losses by fewer than five goals.
The introduction of a top-10 finals system with wildcard rounds further shifts the paradigm. If Brisbane were to stumble into tenth place with fewer than half their wins but regain form and fitness come September, they could still be a threat. While some argue this sets too low a bar for finals qualification, it provides comfort for teams like Fremantle and Sydney, even if their stellar form wanes later in the season.
There is still much to play out in the second half of 2026. But the value of "September seasoning" may not be what it once was. Experience still matters, but in a competition defined by parity, player availability, and timing, it may never have mattered less.
