New Orleans residents are pushing back against a study that suggests the city has reached a 'point of no return' due to climate change, with many vowing to stay unless forced out by hurricanes or flooding. The May study by Tulane University researcher Torbjörn Törnqvist concluded that rising seas and sinking land will eventually force inhabitants to retreat from the city, sparking a fierce local response.
Local Officials Dismiss Study as 'Clickbait'
Helena Moreno, New Orleans' mayor, called the study 'more focused on generating publicity and clickbait headlines' than offering solutions, noting that Miami faces flooding and San Francisco faces wildfires without being declared lost causes. Gordon Dove, head of Louisiana's coastal restoration agency, labeled it 'the most ridiculous study I have ever seen,' questioning Törnqvist's expertise.
Some residents posted defiant videos near levees with captions like 'STOP TELLING US TO MOVE,' while others decried climate denial by state and federal governments. However, Törnqvist reported that most New Orleanians who contacted him understood the city's precarious future. 'We’ve had more constructive reactions than negative ones,' he said.
Gradual Encroachment and the 'Death Penalty' for Wetlands
Törnqvist emphasized that the process is gradual, spanning generations. New Orleans is protected by billions of dollars in levees, pumps, and flood gates, but sea level rise combined with land erosion and subsidence could push the Louisiana coastline up to 62 miles (100 km) inland within a century. The cancellation of a $3 billion project to revive vanishing coastlines by Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry is a further 'death penalty' for the city, Törnqvist argued.
'We will be surrounded by open water, like Venice,' he said. 'I get that people want to stay, but we need to think differently about relocation.'
Community Groups Explore Escape Routes
Debra Campbell, chair of A Community Voice, a non-profit with 9,000 members, has led trips to Vicksburg and Natchez, Mississippi, to assess potential relocation sites. 'We’re only going to leave if forced to due to hurricanes, flooding, and heavy industrialization,' Campbell said. 'Nobody wants to leave home.' The Mississippi cities welcomed the idea, discussing renovation of empty homes and use of public facilities as shelters.
Campbell’s group is seeking private funders to secure properties as climate refuges. 'We do know if something hits like Katrina, it will be a while before we can return. There may come a time where we can’t return home.'
Insurance Costs Driving Some to Leave
New Orleans is already losing population, shrinking to just over 360,000 people due to high home insurance rates—among the highest in the country—stemming from its location below sea level in a hurricane zone. Steve Picou, a musician and environmental planner, moved to Opelousas after his annual insurance jumped from $900 to $9,000 over two decades. 'The whole concept of relocation is overwhelming, but there’s no escaping this climate,' he said.
According to Cotality, a property intelligence firm, New Orleans has a hazard risk score of 100, the highest in the nation, compared to about 75 for Natchez and Vicksburg. 'It’s a bowl surrounded by levees, and water will accumulate within that,' said chief scientist Howard Botts.
What Would It Take to Stay?
AR Siders, an expert in coastal relocation at the University of Delaware, said staying would require major changes: 'Taxes on businesses, boats instead of cars, elevated homes. Something big has to change—people in New Orleans will have to choose to become like Venice or have 30-foot levees.' The federal government has already spent $15 billion on flood protections after Katrina, but costs will rise further.
Arthur Johnson, CEO of the Lower Nine Center for Sustainable Engagement and Development in the Lower Ninth Ward, emphasized investment over retreat. 'If you talk about leaving, it can be an excuse to not have economic development. Where do you move anyway? Where’s affordable?'
Fortifications Provide Hope but Need Upkeep
The Lake Borgne Surge Barrier, a 1.8-mile-long structure with 25-foot gates, has performed well since Katrina, stopping hurricanes like Ida in 2021. Jeff Williams, regional director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority, said, 'I don’t believe it’s a lost cause—it’s a question of investment.' However, another $1 billion is needed to raise levees that are slowly sinking.
'We’re just in the risk reduction business,' Williams said. 'Flood protection is in our name, but we talk risk reduction.'
