More than 240,000 people would exit the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) over four years, according to government modelling presented to a parliamentary inquiry. The figures also estimate that a further 110,000 potential participants would be diverted from accessing the scheme by 2031 under the federal government's planned spending cuts.
The modelling, detailed by Health, Disability and Ageing department first assistant secretary Anthea Long, indicates that without changes, 190,000 new entrants were expected to join the NDIS. However, the government's overhaul would divert 110,000 of those, resulting in a total reduction of about 350,000 participants by 2031 compared to current projections.
Health Minister Mark Butler had previously stated in April that the government's changes would lead to 160,000 fewer people on the scheme by 2031. The Treasury modelling clarified that this figure combines 80,000 new entrants and 240,000 exits due to the changes. Long stressed that the figures were "high level assumptions" not yet subject to detailed assessment thresholds.
NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister told the ABC that the government is convinced the NDIS requires significant change to get it back on track. She said the government is waiting to see the committee's report before addressing any unintended consequences. The government expects the changes to save more than $30 billion over the next four years.
Shadow NDIS Minister Melissa McIntosh urged caution, warning against rushing changes that could affect so many people. "Throughout the hearings, witnesses have been telling the committee that people will die as a result of these changes. It is our responsibility to listen to their concerns," she said. "In the rush to cut expenditure, we cannot forget that there are human lives at the other end."
