The Albanese government is scrambling to secure two key deals before the winter parliamentary break, facing brinkmanship from both the Greens and the Coalition. The outcome remains uncertain: Labor could enter the recess with a legislative win or face a six-week wait until mid-August for another chance to improve its fortunes.
Tax changes and NDIS reforms at stake
Labor wants to pass its negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, supported by the Greens, alongside NDIS reforms backed by the Coalition. However, each party is furious about the other's priorities. The Greens are open to the tax changes but oppose the NDIS cuts, while the Coalition supports NDIS reforms but criticises the tax overhaul. This crossfire creates a high-stakes negotiation environment.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers have framed the tax changes as a response to rising populist economic anger, citing the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation. However, the government continues to slide in polls, with One Nation claiming it raised over $4 million from thousands of donors in its 'fire the liar' campaign, which focused on a 'broken promise' narrative.
Opposition and internal pressures
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, despite being overshadowed by Hanson, has intensified his critique of Labor's 'assault on aspiration' and 'half-arsed' carve-outs for business. Meanwhile, whispers suggest some Labor MPs are uneasy about the NDIS changes. A Labor-led committee report described the proposed cuts as 'retrogressive'.
The Greens are pushing for an extended inquiry into the NDIS overhaul, which is due to table a delayed report on Tuesday. They also propose alternative savings, such as a gas tax, which Labor has ruled out. Senator Nick McKim criticised '$33bn a year just in negative gearing handouts for people with two or more properties', while Senator Larissa Waters claimed $17bn could be raised through a gas tax.
National cabinet meeting and fuel excise
On Monday, Albanese will convene a national cabinet meeting to discuss the fuel excise cut and whether states will forego GST revenue to fund petrol relief. The premiers and chief ministers are expected to raise concerns about the NDIS changes and how states will deliver 'like-for-like' services. The government argues that delaying NDIS legislation could delay $17bn in expected savings, but this has not swayed the Greens.
Outlook and political strategy
Labor is keen to secure wins before the winter break, planning photo opportunities with senior ministers meeting first-home buyers or visiting development sites. The government wants to spend July and August highlighting positives rather than haggling over negatives. However, with both the Greens and Coalition threatening to block where they can, the next fortnight will be a test of negotiation skills. As Josh Butler writes, 'It’s not clear whether the government will secure two deals and enter the parliamentary break on a high, or with none and face a desolate wait until mid-August.'
