Less than a year before the most critical French presidential election in the history of the Fifth Republic, the preliminary phase is drawing to a close. On 7 July, a court will decide whether to uphold Marine Le Pen's appeal against a fraud conviction and a five-year ban from public office. Should she lose, her party's 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, will be confirmed as the National Rally candidate and the frontrunner in the race.
Uncertainty on the Mainstream Side
Voters will need to wait considerably longer for clarity on who will oppose the far right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the veteran leader of the radical-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), has already announced a fourth presidential bid. However, as Emmanuel Macron approaches the end of a second term marred by self-inflicted errors, numerous egos are jostling on the centre-left and centre-right, amidst a frantic assessment of the odds.
The number of potential candidates is estimated to be as high as 35. Not all will ultimately run, but months of positioning will create an unedifying spectacle in a country where trust in politics is at an all-time low. Alarmingly, a large field could turn a nightmare scenario into a plausible one.
Mélenchon's Potential Path
Early polling suggests that a fragmented vote could enable Mélenchon to squeeze into second place behind Bardella or Le Pen in the first round, thus qualifying for the runoff. The 74-year-old Mélenchon is a formidable campaigner with loyal support among the young, in the banlieues, and among minority-ethnic voters. However, he is also one of the most divisive politicians in France; rallying a “republican front” around him to fend off the far-right threat would be problematic. One survey estimates that in a second-round contest with the LFI leader, Bardella would win more than 70% of the vote.
The spectre of a far-right landslide should be concentrating minds more than it currently seems to. Two of Macron’s former prime ministers, Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe, will compete on a centrist agenda. Attal, in particular, risks being tainted by association with a president suffering approval ratings above 75% disapproval. On the centre-right, three candidates have already declared, and more are likely to follow. But without official primary contests, a winnowing process has yet to be agreed upon.
Progressive Confusion
At the progressive end of the spectrum, the picture is equally unclear. Internal feuding in the Socialist party over the selection process reflects strategic dilemmas about whether to lean left or towards the centre. A host of potential aspirants, including former President François Hollande, are weighing their options. If a centre-left candidate is to have any chance of making the runoff, the Socialists, Greens, and other smaller parties will surely need to unite behind a candidate, as they failed to do in the previous two presidential elections. Yet no centre-left primary process has been agreed upon.
This is an inauspicious beginning to a campaign whose outcome will be crucial in determining Europe’s future as well as that of France. Victory next May for the Eurosceptic nationalist far right, in the country that, alongside Germany, has driven European Union integration, would be a turning point. So far, mainstream politicians are failing to live up to the gravity of the moment.
