The South Australian Liberal Party is facing a potential electoral wipeout not seen since the 1993 state bank election, according to recent polling. A Fox and Hedgehog poll of 904 voters published this week shows the Liberal primary vote at just 19 percent, trailing behind One Nation on 20 percent, while Labor holds steady at 40 percent.
On a two-party preferred basis, the poll indicates Labor leading 61 to 39 percent, a significant increase from the 55 to 45 percent result at the last election. Fox and Hedgehog founder Michael Horner said the Liberals could hold as few as five seats after election day, citing ongoing federal Coalition turmoil as a factor.
The poll, taken from January 31 to February 8, captured a period of Coalition instability and One Nation's unveiling of former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi as its lead upper house candidate. One Nation's primary vote rose seven points from a previous poll in November-December.
SA Liberal Party president and federal senator Leah Blyth acknowledged that federal issues were affecting the state campaign. Former ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green noted the poll is consistent with other recent surveys, but questioned whether One Nation can maintain its support through to the election.
The impact of incumbency may save some vulnerable Liberal MPs, such as Stephen Patterson in Morphett, Vincent Tarzia in Hartley, and Jack Batty in Bragg. However, the polling trend suggests a historic defeat for the Liberals, potentially matching the 1993 result when Labor was reduced to just 10 lower house seats.
