It has long been the case that when a US President speaks, financial markets react. But recently oil markets have been behaving a bit differently: sometimes the stock price moves before Trump posts. Millions of dollars are changing hands with some traders seeming to have made incredibly well-timed bets. Did some of them know something the rest of the market didn’t?
Analysis of Trump's Social Media Activity
Former President Donald Trump, using the handle @realDonaldTrump, made 1,341 posts on Truth Social from January 25 to April 8. Our analysis of that 73-day window reveals 15 distinct events with unusual trading activity around Trump’s posts. In several of those events — including the most striking ones — the price had already moved sharply in the minutes before he posted.
Key Findings
- 15 instances of suspicious trading activity tied to Trump's posts
- Price movements often occurred minutes before the post was published
- Some trades involved millions of dollars in profits
The findings raise questions about whether traders had advance access to Trump's posts or if other factors were at play. The US-Iran conflict and oil market dynamics are central to the story.
For a deeper dive, read the interactive story here.
