One Nation will face a significant electoral test in a Western Australian state byelection for the seat of Secret Harbour, which lies predominantly within the federal electorate of Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie, a vocal critic of the party. The contest, triggered by the resignation of Labor veteran Paul Papalia, will be closely watched for its potential to erode Labor support in an outer suburban area and for its implications for Hastie, who holds the federal seat of Canning.
Byelection Context and Importance
The byelection is prompted by the resignation of Paul Papalia, a long-serving Labor member and minister in the Cook Labor government, who announced on Monday he was quitting due to serious illness in his family. One Nation confirmed it had been preparing for some time to run in the state seat, with party leader Pauline Hanson stating they have a shortlist of potential candidates.
The Australian Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor sources indicated recent internal polling suggested One Nation was running neck-and-neck with Labor in the electorate. According to the AFR, Labor insiders estimated both Labor and One Nation's vote in the outer-suburban area was in the mid-30s, while the Liberal Party vote was hovering in the high teens.
Previous Election Results
In the 2025 state election, the primary vote for Labor in Secret Harbour was 46.5%. The Liberals polled 25%, the Greens 8.8%, and One Nation only 8.4%. The byelection will be a critical measure of One Nation's growth and its ability to challenge Labor in such seats.
Implications for Andrew Hastie
The byelection also carries implications for Hastie, a fierce critic of One Nation. Federal Liberals are divided on how to respond to the party's rise, with some favouring accommodation. Hastie, however, is hardline. He recently stated in the Coalition parties room that he would “rather get taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation.”
One Nation strongly supports Ben Roberts-Smith, a Victoria Cross recipient accused of five counts of the war crime of murder relating to his time in Afghanistan. One of the party's reasons for targeting Hastie is that he gave evidence against Roberts-Smith in the latter's failed defamation case.
Hastie's Response
After his party room comments, Hastie wrote to his supporters in a newsletter, saying: “One Nation haven’t just targeted my seat. They’ve run a relentless campaign of personal attacks against me online. It’s become serious enough that security at my home and electorate office needs to be upgraded. One Nation has declared war on me, so they shall have war. This is now personal, and they will have to blast me out of Canning.” He added that talk from some Liberals about preference deals was premature. “It signals weakness. We should only act from a position of strength.”
Broader Political Impact
The byelection will also be important for One Nation as it comes in the run-up to the crucial Victorian state election in November, which is seen as a major test and opportunity for Pauline Hanson’s party, which has been surging in the polls. The outcome in Secret Harbour will provide insights into One Nation's momentum and its potential to influence both state and federal politics.
