Since the May 12 federal budget, every major poll has recorded One Nation gaining ground compared to the previous iteration of the same survey. However, while the party continues to lead on primary votes in both the YouGov and Morgan polls, its support has either dipped slightly or remained flat.
National Polls: YouGov and Morgan
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted June 9–16 from a sample of 1,492 respondents, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (down one point since late May), Labor 26% (steady), the Coalition 21% (up one), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 12% (steady). On a two-party preferred basis, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by 52–48, representing a 0.5-point gain for One Nation against Labor and a 0.5-point gain for Labor against the Coalition.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved by one point to -25, with 60% dissatisfied and 35% satisfied. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s net approval slumped five points to -10 (47% dissatisfied, 37% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as preferred prime minister by 43–38 (previously 41–39) and led Pauline Hanson by 48–41 (previously 47–41).
On One Nation’s readiness to govern, 50% said the party is ready to govern well now, while 33% believe it will be ready by the next election. One Nation has proposed scrapping $1.3 billion in taxpayer funding for the ABC and moving it to a subscription model. Overall, respondents supported this by 55–45. However, of the 55% who supported scrapping taxpayer funding, only 7% said they would personally pay for the ABC.
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 8–14 from a sample of 1,583, gave One Nation 29.5% of the primary vote (steady since the June 1–7 poll), Labor 28% (up two), the Coalition 17% (down 0.5), the Greens 14% (down 1.5) and all Others 11.5% (steady). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. Using 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.
Further Resolve Questions
In additional questions from the June Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, Treasurer Jim Chalmers recorded a net approval of -5 (39% bad, 34% good). His net approval is up one point since May but down 12 points since the March 2025 budget. Perceptions of the budget have declined since May: 23% (down one) said it was good for “me and my household,” 29% (down one) good for the country, 29% (down two) good for the health of the economy, 23% (down two) good for older people, and 28% (down five) good for younger people.
By 44–24, respondents expected the economy to get worse rather than better in the next year, with more pessimism for shorter time horizons. By 33–29, they expected the economy to improve over the next five years.
Victorian Resolve Poll: One Nation Still Gaining
The Victorian state election is scheduled for late November. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted alongside the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (down one since April), the Coalition 26% (down three), One Nation 24% (up three), the Greens 12% (up two), independents 5% (down two) and others 7% (up one). Resolve typically does not provide a two-party estimate for state polls, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated a Coalition lead over Labor of about 52–48.
The Age noted that One Nation had 20% of the primary vote in May and 28% in June, but cautioned that small monthly samples can be volatile. In two other recent Victorian polls, Labor trailed in third place behind One Nation and the Coalition.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s net likeability fell to -35, returning to where it was at the start of the year. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net likeability dropped three points to +15. Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by an unchanged 39–20. By 61–25, respondents did not think Labor and Allan deserved a fourth term. By 46–35, they believed the Liberals and Wilson were capable of governing the state effectively.
In the lead-up to the election, Resolve will double its monthly Victorian samples, enabling The Age to report poll results every month.
Queensland Resolve Poll: One Nation Surges at Labor’s Expense
A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 30% of the primary vote (steady since April), Labor 24% (down four), One Nation 24% (up seven), the Greens 10% (down one), independents 5% (down five) and others 6% (up two). No two-party estimate was provided, but Bonham estimated an LNP lead over Labor of about 56–44. A recent DemosAU Queensland poll gave the LNP a 58–42 lead.
LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability fell three points to +16. Labor leader Steven Miles slid six points to -11, his worst net likeability since 2024, when he was premier before losing the October 2024 election. Crisafulli led as preferred premier by a blowout 44–20 (previously 42–26), his biggest lead in Resolve’s Queensland polls dating back to 2022.
WA DemosAU Poll: Labor Down but Still Ahead
A Western Australian DemosAU poll, conducted May 29 to June 11 from a sample of 1,015, gave Labor 33% of the primary vote (down five since February), the Liberals 23% (up two), the Nationals 3% (down one), One Nation 18% (up one), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 11% (up two). After preferences, Labor led the Liberals by 53–47, a four-point gain for the Liberals.
Labor Premier Roger Cook’s net positive score was unchanged at +6 (35% positive, 29% negative). Liberal leader Basil Zempilas was also unchanged at -3 (34% negative, 31% positive). One Nation WA leader Rod Caddies rose five points to -12 (30% negative, 18% positive). Greens WA leader Brad Pettitt dropped four points to -18 (31% negative, 13% positive). Cook led Zempilas as preferred premier by 44–33 (previously 43–30). By 43–36, respondents thought WA was headed in the wrong direction (previously 43–39).
