Bianca De Marchi/AAP One Nation has surged to first place on primary votes in two new polls, marking a significant shift in Australian federal politics. Four federal polls released since Sunday show One Nation leading Labor in both the Redbridge and YouGov polls and tying with Labor in the Morgan poll. Labor held a primary vote lead in the Fox & Hedgehog (F&H) poll.
Poll Results Overview
If the polls are ranked by the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition, the F&H poll is Labor's worst, with the right vote at 52%. The right had 51% in Redbridge, 49% in YouGov, and 47% in Morgan. Labor still led One Nation by respondent preferences in all four polls, though only by 51–49 in Redbridge. In F&H, Labor trailed the Coalition on respondent preferences, but led in the other polls.
Morgan and YouGov conducted polls immediately after the budget, and One Nation has gained in both from their post-budget editions. The next federal election is not due until early 2028. If the budget changes pass parliament, they will mostly be implemented from July 2027. Analyst Peter Brent suggests Labor may regain ground if the sky does not fall after July 2027.
Redbridge Poll
A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted May 25–28 from a sample of 1,005, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote (up four since late April), Labor 28% (down three), the Coalition 20% (down two), the Greens 12% (down one), and all Others 9% (up two). By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by just 51–49, a four-point gain for One Nation and a three-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Anthony Albanese's net favourability slumped ten points to -19. Treasurer Jim Chalmers also crashed 13 points to -18. Greens leader Larissa Waters was down two points to -6, Liberal Andrew Hastie down six points to -6, Angus Taylor down two points to -4, Nationals leader Matt Canavan down two points to -4, and Pauline Hanson up one point to net zero.
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 31% (down two), Hanson 25% (up two), and Taylor 14% (steady). By 55–23, respondents thought the federal budget would be bad for the nation rather than good. By 48–11, they thought it would be bad for them personally.
On issues, the combined score for the Coalition and One Nation led the combined score for Labor and the Greens by 39–28 on cost of living, 35–29 on housing, 55–20 on immigration, 42–25 on economic management, 42–23 on crime, and 42–24 on national security. The left had a 36–32 lead on healthcare and a 40–24 lead on climate change. The right has gained on issues that were assessed in late April.
YouGov Poll
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted May 26 to June 2 from a sample of 1,471, gave One Nation 29% of the primary vote (up four since mid-May), Labor 26% (down two), the Coalition 20% (down three), the Greens 13% (steady), independents 6% (up one), and others 6% (steady). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52.5–47.5, a 0.5-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 51.5–48.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Albanese's net approval slumped five points to -24 with 60% dissatisfied and 36% satisfied. His net approval has dived ten points in the last two YouGov polls. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 41–39 (41–38 previously). He led Hanson by 47–41 (50–38 previously). By 46–31, respondents supported One Nation and the Coalition working together to form government. Among One Nation voters, this was 53–25 support and among Coalition voters 45–28 support.
The previous YouGov poll was taken after the May 12 budget, so this poll suggests further damage for Labor and Albanese and gains for One Nation since the immediate budget aftermath.
Fox & Hedgehog Poll
A national Fox & Hedgehog poll for News Corp, conducted May 25–26 from a sample of 1,700, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since late March), One Nation 27% (up four), the Coalition 25% (up two), the Greens 10% (down three), and all Others 9% (down two). By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 51–49, a two-point gain for the Coalition. This is the first Coalition lead in a poll other than Essential. Labor led One Nation by 54–46, a two-point gain for One Nation.
Albanese's net approval was down three points to -22, with 51% disapproving and 29% approving. Taylor's net approval was steady at net zero (29% both approving and disapproving). Hanson was down one point to +8 (44% approve, 36% disapprove) and Chalmers was down five points to -17 (37% disapprove, 20% approve). Taylor led Albanese as preferred PM by 38–36 (39–35 to Albanese previously).
If a teal-style party ran, this poll suggests it would get 6%, with that support coming most at the expense of Labor (down three points to 26% vs the standard question). There would be no effect on the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition. Just 28% thought Labor had done enough to deserve re-election while 57% thought it was time to give someone else a go. But by 44–30 and 45–40, respondents thought the Liberals and One Nation respectively were not ready for government. By 47–19, respondents had an unfavourable view of the federal budget. By 59–20, they did not trust the Labor government's promise not to introduce taxes on the family home or death taxes in future budgets.
Morgan Poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted May 25–31 from a sample of 1,542, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since May 18–24), One Nation 27% (up 1.5), the Coalition 20% (down three), the Greens 13.5% (steady), and all Others 12.5% (up two). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 53.5–46.5. Labor led the Coalition by 55.5–44.5, a 2.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53.5–46.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.
Since the budget, One Nation's support has increased every week in Morgan's polls. Morgan had not been friendly for One Nation prior to the budget.
