One Nation has effectively become the "official opposition" after new polling showed the minor party had surpassed the Coalition and Labor to become the most popular party in the country.
The latest Sky News Pulse / YouGov poll placed Pauline Hanson's party on top of the primary vote for the first time in history, ahead of both Labor and the Coalition. One Nation secured 29 per cent of the vote, followed by Labor on 26 per cent and the Coalition on 20 per cent.
Despite having just two MPs in the lower house, Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell said the political establishment had to reckon with One Nation's rise. "Right now, as far as those polls are concerned, One Nation is the official opposition in this country," he said. "Now that may change. There's a belief in (Parliament House) it will change, but you can't bank on anything, can you? So let's think about One Nation being the official opposition. The government is still in front on two-party preferred. And they will believe that they can peak at the right time."
Labor was behind the Coalition in the polls prior to the 2025 federal election, but was able to surge over the campaign to capture a supermajority in the lower house. Among people who voted Labor in 2025, 14 per cent have shifted to One Nation, while about one million people said they regretted backing Labor at the last election. Yet despite the historic primary vote collapse, Labor has maintained a narrow lead on a two-party preferred basis, leading the Coalition 51.5-48.5 and One Nation 52.5-47.5.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will hope that the political landscape will move in his favour by the 2028 election, with inflation falling, interest rates stable and the war in Iran ended.
Meanwhile, the rise of One Nation has exposed divisions within the centre-right over how to respond, with Liberal MPs playing down the development. Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson rejected suggestions the centre-right was being remade on Wednesday, describing One Nation as an "orange paddock of despair". "The pathway for us to win is to make sure we're offering a blue sky horizon of liberal hope," Mr Wilson told Sky News.
Mr Wilson also dismissed talks of a broader conservative alliance with One Nation, saying his plan was for a Liberal-led Coalition government to "storm to victory". He also pointed to Ms Hanson's own ambitions to become prime minister as a reason for opposing cooperation. "What I'm hearing, of course, from the leader of that party's mouth is that they want to go on to be prime minister. They want to wipe the Liberal Party out," he said. "They want to wipe the National Party out, and they want to give free rein to the Australian Labor Party and Anthony Albanese. I can't support an environment where not only the aim is to get rid of my party and the National party, but to enhance the position of the Australian Labor Party."
Despite these comments, Ms Hanson has said she is willing to work with the Coalition to defeat Labor at the 2028 election. One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce described the poll as evidence of a political trend rather than a protest movement, but acknowledged it was not election day yet. "It's a great honour. It's an indicator. It is not a vote," Mr Joyce told Sky News on Wednesday. "The polls are not an aberration, one confirms the other, they are corroborated and when you ground truth them in an election, the vote's there," he said. He also backed Ms Hanson's capability to lead the country if given the opportunity, saying strong leadership depended on surrounding yourself with the right people. "I think Pauline's got as much capability as doing that as anybody," he said.
