Jacinta Allan is facing a fresh round of leadership speculation, but her potential replacements have all been branded as "incompetent" amid reports that MPs may move to dump the Premier before the state election.
Leadership rumblings have reignited inside the Victorian Labor Party, with multiple MPs telling The Age that a challenge could take place before this year's state election. Premier Allan dismissed reports MPs were plotting against her earlier this year, branding it "anonymous gossip".
"I'm focused on Victorians … not anonymous gossip that could be from a few scallywags out there that might need a bit of a cuddle," the Premier said in March. But with less than six months before the state election, Ms Allan is rapidly running out of time to improve Labor's dire position in the polls.
Polls conducted by Resolve Strategic show Labor's primary vote support has fallen from 39 per cent when Jacinta Allan took over the top job to just 27 per cent in April this year. A recent Freshwater Strategy poll also showed that while Labor trailed the Coalition 52-48 on the two-party-preferred, this would improve to 50-50 if Labor changed leader. The same poll showed that 26 per cent of voters would be more likely to back Labor if Ms Allan was no longer Premier, with only 10 per cent saying they would be less likely to back the party.
The two most likely candidates to replace Ms Allan are Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams, from the Socialist Left faction, and Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, who is from the right faction. Asked about the leadership speculation on Friday, shadow police minister Brad Battin said no matter who led the Labor Party, the result would be the same.
"What I can say is whether you've got Jacinta Allan as the premier, or all the way to the newest member John Lister… they are all incompetent," Mr Battin said. "This is a bad government. For the past 11 years, they have seen increases in crime at unbelievable levels, they've seen increases in debt, which is putting cost of living pressures on every single person in this state. We've seen funding in hospitals being cut, an increase in our waiting lists for emergency surgeries here in the state. We've got 1,500 less police. It doesn't matter which minister you look at, they've all failed."
The senior Liberal MP went on to acknowledge that some Labor MPs privately acknowledged how much trouble the state was in, but they continued to support the policies that had led to the situation. "The one thing we do know about the Victorian Labor Party is they all sing to the same song when they come out publicly, but behind the scenes they are dirty on what is going on," he said. "When you speak to Labor MPs about it, they don't want to see the police stations closed, yet they have to come out and thank the government for closing them. They don't like vacancies on police rosters, yet they're told to get in parliament and say we've got the biggest police force in Australia. They are angry at the fact that there is increased debt here in this state. Behind the scenes, Labor is bleeding on the fact that they know that this state is in turmoil. They just don't have an answer to it."
The Socialist Left faction currently holds a majority of 39 to 30 in the Victorian Labor caucus and has controlled the leadership since 2010. But left faction members also hold some of the most marginal seats, with seven of the 12 seats held with a margin of less than 5 per cent being held by the Socialist Left. If the Labor caucus can agree on a candidate to replace Ms Allan, the Premier could be dumped as leader if 50 per cent of the caucus backs a motion to declare the position vacant. But if multiple MPs then nominate for the role, party rules dictate that a vote of both the parliamentary Labor caucus and Victorian party members would need to be held to decide the result.
