Birth rates have been declining worldwide since the peak of the post-World War II baby boom. Today, most countries, including Australia, have birth rates below replacement level—meaning populations are not replacing themselves. This trend has sparked concern among leaders like Elon Musk, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the Pope, who have all weighed in on declining total fertility rates.
From Overpopulation to Depopulation
Since the 1960s, fears of overpopulation dominated public discourse. In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich warned of a looming catastrophe of famine and war due to overcrowding. However, global fertility rates have more than halved since 1950, with OECD countries averaging just 1.46 births per woman—well below the 2.1 needed for replacement. The world population is projected to decline by the mid-2080s. China is now in its fourth year of population decline, South Korea has been shrinking since 2019, and Germany has seen deaths outnumber births since 1972. Other nations like Japan, Greece, Italy, Cuba, and Thailand are also experiencing depopulation. Without immigration, the United Kingdom would face similar decline. Australia is about a generation away from this fate, and Canada has already seen depopulation due to immigration controls.
The Ageing ‘Problem’
Advances in health and medical technologies mean people are living longer, but they are also having fewer children, leading to ageing populations. While an ageing society is a sign of human progress, economic systems view it as problematic. Workers and taxpayers are essential for a healthy economy, and too few working-age people to replace retirees can undermine economic wellbeing. This has prompted Australian politicians to urge citizens to have more babies. In 2004, Treasurer Peter Costello famously said, “Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country.” In 2020, former Prime Minister Tony Abbott suggested that “middle class” women should have more children. More recently, Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated in 2024 that it would be “better if birth rates were higher.”
The Human Catastrophe of Low Birth Rates
Many people say their choice to have children is constrained by external factors. A United Nations survey found that about one in five respondents worldwide cited fears about the future as a reason for having fewer children than desired. Housing affordability, economic stability, gender inequality, and climate change present insurmountable barriers for many who want families. This lack of choice, I argue, is a human catastrophe. How has society become so hostile that children are out of the question for so many who want them? The intergenerational bargain is corrupted, leaving us to wonder who will care for us as the population ages.
Can the Catastrophe Be Avoided?
The burden of having a family falls on working-age people, especially women. A baby bonus or one-off payment is unlikely to change minds or increase fertility rates—it merely shifts timing. Instead, a comprehensive policy approach is needed to address four key areas: housing, the economy, gender equality, and climate change. This includes secure, affordable, and appropriate housing; employment and income security; accessible childcare; social and workplace gender equality; and climate action. People of childbearing age are not being hedonistic when making family decisions; they are thinking about the future world for their prospective children. Loss of hope and fears of being left behind contribute to concerns about an insecure future. The human catastrophe of low birth rates reflects widespread insecurity and could undermine social cohesion. Rather than an overpopulation bomb, the world faces an economic and social implosion due to a lack of substantive supports for raising wanted children. Surely it is time to ask people what they truly need—and provide it.
