Economic Pessimism at Record High
Australians have become markedly more pessimistic about the economy, with 59% now expressing gloom about the nation's economic performance, according to the Lowy Institute's 2026 poll. This represents a 12-point increase from 2025 and is the highest level recorded since the poll began in 2005, surpassing even the peaks seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis.
Trust in Superpowers Shifts
Trust in the United States to act responsibly has fallen to 31%, down 5 points from last year and the lowest ever recorded. Only 21% have confidence in US President Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs, the lowest confidence in any American president in the poll's history. Meanwhile, trust in China, though still low at 28%, has risen 8 points from 2025. For the first time, a majority of Australians (51%) view the relationship with China as more important than the US relationship (45%).
Alliance Support Holds Despite Distrust
Despite declining trust in the US, support for the Australia-US alliance remains strong, with 73% saying the alliance is very or fairly important to Australia's security, down 7 points in a year. Half of Australians believe Australia should distance itself from the US under its current president. However, 50% support increasing defence spending, and 68% back the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS.
Poll author Charlie Lyons-Jones said: “Support for Australia’s alliance with the United States has held up, even though confidence in President Trump has cratered. Two-thirds of Australians support the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS and a majority support the basing of American military forces on Australian soil. Those results show that Australians remain supportive of our alliance with the United States in a more turbulent world, even if they dislike President Trump personally.”
Foreign Policy and Cultural Diversity
Just over half of Australians (54%) rate the Albanese government's foreign policy performance as quite or very poor, up 13 points since 2024. Support for cultural diversity has softened dramatically: in 2024, nine in ten Australians saw it as positive, but in 2026 only 73% said so. Lowy describes this as the largest shift on any societal question in the poll's history. This decline coincides with One Nation leader Pauline Hanson's attacks on multiculturalism, advocating for a monocultural Australia.
Migration and Safety Concerns
Fifty-five percent of Australians say migration is too high, marginally above last year's 53% and up 7 points from 2024. Most people (53%) feel unsafe or very unsafe in the world, the lowest level of safety recorded by the poll. Concerns about artificial intelligence have grown, with 64% believing the risks of AI outweigh the benefits, a 12-point jump from 2024.
Fuel Security and Methodology
The poll also included a mini-poll on fuel security: 74% supported the government spending about $20 billion over four years to build infrastructure boosting fuel reserves to 90 days supply. The main Lowy poll surveyed 2013 people nationally from March 2-15, 2026. Lowy's executive director Michael Fullilove said: “In 2026, the liberal international order has been replaced by something illiberal, nationalistic, and disorderly. The 22nd Lowy Institute Poll is a snapshot of Australians’ thinking as they reckon with this change.”
