The biggest sporting event on the planet, the FIFA Men's World Cup, is now underway, captivating a television audience of billions and millions of stadium-goers. The 23rd edition of the tournament is filled with impressive statistics. A record 48 teams are competing in 108 matches across 16 venues in three North American countries, vying for a record prize pool of nearly US$900 million.
Demographic Insights from the Tournament
For demographers, the competing countries offer a snapshot of a world undergoing profound change. An intriguing question arises: how much do factors like a country's population size and age alone influence chances of success?
Why Size Isn't Everything
The diversity of countries represented this year is remarkable, as is the age range of talent. Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo is still competing at 41, while Spain's 18-year-old Lamine Yamal arrives as one of the game's brightest young stars after helping his country win the European Championship in 2024. Côte d'Ivoire has the youngest squad with a median age of 25.4, while Iran fields the oldest at 31.3. These figures may mirror home trends: Côte d'Ivoire's median population age is just 18.1 years, compared with 34.3 in Iran.
However, the relationship between a country's football team and its population age isn't always straightforward. Japan has the oldest population of any nation at the tournament, with a median age of 49, while its squad has a median age of just 27.4, within the statistical sweet spot for World Cup finalists (between 26 and 28.5 years old).
Population size might seem like an obvious advantage. More people should mean a larger talent pool. One recent analysis suggested this is a top predictor for World Cup qualification. Brazil, with over 211 million people, is the second most populous nation at the tournament and its most successful, with five titles. Yet size can't ensure victory. The world's two most populous nations, China and India, have never qualified for a men's World Cup finals, while the United States has reached only one semi-final despite its population exceeding 340 million.
Statistical models also reveal glaring anomalies. Italy, with a massive talent reserve, failed to qualify. Then there are small nations that punch above their demographic weight. Curaçao, with a population of just 185,000, is the smallest nation ever to qualify. Every squad member plays professionally overseas, many in the Netherlands, showing how football talent can be developed beyond borders. Uruguay, with only 3.4 million people, has won the World Cup twice and remains a great overachiever.
Demographics and Dividends
As recent analyses suggest, wealth, coaching systems, and long-established football cultures can be as important as population size. The same principle applies beyond sport. Demographers argue that a country's prospects are influenced not just by population size but by age structure and human capital development.
Many tournament countries with younger populations—especially in Africa, Asia, and the Pacific—have growing workforces and many young people entering adulthood. Economists call the opportunities from a large working-age population the “demographic dividend.” Migration is also increasingly important. Across much of Europe, immigration now accounts for a significant share of population growth, helping offset labour shortages and ageing. The World Cup reflects this, with many teams drawing on players whose family histories span multiple countries.
But neither youthful populations, strong migration, nor sheer size guarantees success—on or off the pitch. The key lesson from this World Cup is investment in people.
