A groundbreaking study has revealed that women who received an HPV vaccine in early adolescence have virtually zero risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30. However, experts warn that falling vaccination rates could lead to a resurgence of avoidable deaths.
Study Findings
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women globally, with high-risk human papillomaviruses (HPV) causing 99% of cases. In England, approximately 3,300 women are diagnosed annually. While the HPV vaccine prevents about 90% of cervical cancers, its impact on survival had been unclear until now.
Researchers from Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) analyzed official cancer mortality and vaccination data for women aged 20 to 34. The study, funded by Cancer Research UK and published in the Lancet, found little change in cervical cancer mortality among those never offered HPV vaccination. However, substantial declines were observed in those offered vaccination after the jab's introduction in 2008.
The impact on mortality has been so significant that the authors estimate the likelihood of girls vaccinated at age 12 or 13 dying from cervical cancer before 30 is almost zero. For vaccinated women aged 30-34, the relative risk of death from the disease is 63% lower. Remarkably, for the first time in recorded history, no women aged 20 to 24 died from cervical cancer in England between 2020 and 2024. Overall, the HPV vaccine has saved hundreds of lives, the study concludes.
Expert Commentary
Peter Sasieni, professor of cancer epidemiology at QMUL and lead author, stated: “We estimate that since its introduction, HPV vaccination has prevented nearly 200 young women from dying from cervical cancer in England.” The vaccine also protects against certain cancers of the anus, penis, vagina, vulva, mouth and throat, as well as genital warts. It is offered to girls and boys in year 8, with catch-up vaccinations in some areas for years 9 and 10.
The World Health Organization's global strategy on cervical cancer aims for 90% of girls to be vaccinated by age 15, 70% of women screened, and 90% of those with cervical disease treated by 2030. Vaccination rates were close to this target before the pandemic but have since declined significantly.
Sasieni added: “With close to 90% HPV vaccine uptake in women born between 1995 and 2004, we expect thousands of cervical cancer deaths prevented in those women over the coming years. HPV vaccination combined with cervical screening could reduce cervical cancer rates to the point where almost no one develops it.” However, he warned that falling uptake—now just 75% nationally and 60% in London—could reverse these gains, potentially leading to 15-25 additional avoidable deaths each year in young women and about 200 deaths annually that could be prevented with pre-Covid vaccination levels.
Calls for Action
Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, emphasized: “It’s essential that the UK government and health systems urgently address this with targeted action to reach communities where uptake is the lowest.” Helen Hyndman, lead nurse at The Eve Appeal, noted that cervical cancer will not be eliminated unless vaccination and screening rates improve, warning that at the current rate, elimination may not be achieved until 2050.
Dr. Alison Wright, president of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, called the data “exciting and powerful,” highlighting that improved access to vaccines through community pharmacies is welcome, but further progress depends on encouraging uptake at all levels and ensuring equitable access.
Caroline Temmink, NHS Director of Vaccination, said: “This hugely encouraging news shows the life-saving impact of the HPV vaccine. Alongside cervical screening, HPV vaccination is central to the NHS ambition to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040. It’s a safe and effective vaccine, and we urge everyone eligible to take up the offer.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson added: “We are boosting vaccine uptake, including rolling out catch-up HPV vaccination campaigns via community pharmacies and making cervical screening more accessible. HPV self-testing kits are now being sent to those who do not come forward for screening, to catch cancers at their earliest, most treatable stages.”
