One Nation's plan to direct preferences against all sitting MPs in the upcoming Queensland election is a strategic move to distance itself from both major parties, but Labor's state secretary, Evan Moorhead, claims it is designed to harm Labor. Moorhead stated that One Nation's preference decision has raised the stakes, but the party's biggest impact comes when it finishes second, not through its preferences.
One Nation is expected to preference against the Liberal National Party (LNP) in seats where it is likely to finish second to the LNP, such as Warrego, Callide, Nanango, and Southern Downs. Moorhead argued that this approach is clever but ultimately aimed at damaging Labor. He noted that Labor putting One Nation last on how-to-vote cards would benefit the LNP in those seats, while LNP preferences to One Nation could hurt Labor in seats like Ipswich West and Gladstone.
One Nation's state leader, Steve Dickson, indicated that the preference position could change. LNP leader Tim Nicholls has left the door open to governing with One Nation support, breaking the longstanding practice of putting One Nation last. However, Nicholls claimed that Labor would benefit from One Nation votes and that a vote for One Nation is a vote for Labor government.
Moorhead asserted that One Nation has made it clear it would never support Labor in government, and if Labor fails to secure an outright majority, it would become the opposition. With both major parties' primary votes falling towards 30% and One Nation's support ranging from 13% to 18%, Moorhead argued that the LNP cannot reach the 47 seats needed for a majority without One Nation's support.
Political scientist Paul Williams from Griffith University described One Nation's move as a smart strategy, playing into the narrative of 'a pox on both your houses.' He noted that One Nation is unwilling to align too closely with the LNP, given the negative outcome in Western Australia. Williams suggested that up to 80% of One Nation voters have defected from the LNP, and their preferences may still flow to the LNP regardless of One Nation's how-to-vote cards.
