Two polls conducted in Victoria have placed the Labor Party third on primary votes, trailing behind One Nation and the Coalition, just five months before the state election scheduled for late November. Premier Jacinta Allan's net approval rating has sunk below -35 in both surveys.
Victorian Polling Details
A Freshwater poll, conducted from June 5 to 8 with a sample of 1,034 respondents, gave the Coalition 27% of the primary vote (down three points since late March), One Nation 25% (up five), Labor 23% (down four), the Greens 14% (steady), and all Others 11% (up two). Although Labor is third on primary votes, they would likely pass One Nation and the Coalition on Greens preferences. The Coalition led Labor by 53–47 after preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Premier Allan's net approval dropped five points to a dire -37. Liberal leader Jess Wilson's net approval fell three points to +15. Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by a wide margin of 49–25, compared to 47–31 previously. On Allan, 62% of respondents (up four points) wanted her replaced as Labor leader, with Labor voters opposing by 53–39.
A second poll, conducted by Victorian DemosAU and Premier National from June 7 to 11 with a sample of 1,056, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up one since February), One Nation 23% (up two), Labor 21% (down two), the Greens 15% (steady), and all Others 11% (down one). The Coalition led Labor by 55–45 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition.
Allan's net positive score dropped two points to -39, with 57% rating her negatively and 18% positively. Wilson's net positive score improved seven points to +10, with 32% positive and 22% negative.
Federal Resolve Poll
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted from June 8 to 13 with a sample of 1,801 respondents, gave One Nation 29% of the primary vote (up five since mid-May), Labor 28% (down one), the Coalition 20% (down three), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (steady), and others 5% (steady). No two-party estimate was provided.
In a three-way preferred prime minister question, Pauline Hanson led with 33%, followed by Anthony Albanese at 29% and Angus Taylor at 16%. In the conventional two-way question, Taylor led Albanese 32–31, compared to 33–30 previously. Albanese's net approval improved two points to -20, with 55% giving him a bad rating and 35% a good rating. Taylor's net approval dropped two points to +6, with 38% good and 32% bad.
Support for key budget measures has declined since May. By 34–29, respondents opposed changes to family trusts, compared to 34–23 support previously. Respondents were split 31–31 on changes to capital gains tax, down from 36–21 support. Changes to negative gearing were still supported by 33–26, compared to 35–21 previously.
Keeping the cost of living low was the top issue for 47% of respondents (up three), with no other issue in double digits. Labor led the Liberals 24–20 on this issue, with 31% for someone else, compared to a 27–24 Liberal lead in May. On economic management, the Liberals led Labor 26–25, compared to 33–23 in May.
Morgan Poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted from June 1 to 7 with a sample of 1,631 respondents, gave One Nation 29.5% of the primary vote (up 2.5 since late May), Labor 26% (down one), the Coalition 17.5% (down 2.5), the Greens 15.5% (up two), and all Others 11.5% (down one). By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation 53.5–46.5, unchanged. Labor led the Coalition 56–44, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition 54–46, also a 0.5-point gain.
Farrer Byelection Preference Flows
At the May 9 Farrer federal byelection, One Nation's David Farley defeated independent Michelle Milthorpe by 57.6–42.4, compared to a 56.2–43.8 Liberal victory over Milthorpe at the 2025 election. Primary votes were 39.5% for One Nation (up 32.9%), 28.1% for Milthorpe (up 8.1%), 12.4% for the Liberals (down 31.0%), 9.8% for the Nationals (new), 2.3% for Legalise Cannabis (new), 2.3% for the Greens (down 2.6%), and 2.0% for the Shooters (down 1.5%). Labor did not contest after receiving 15.1% in 2025.
Preference flows showed that One Nation won Liberal preferences by 59.0–41.0 against Milthorpe and Nationals preferences by 69.1–30.9. Milthorpe won Legalise Cannabis preferences by 63.0–37.0 and Greens preferences by 91.8–8.2. One Nation won Shooters preferences by 60.6–39.4. The Liberals and Nationals both had One Nation ahead of Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards, indicating a large portion of Liberal and National voters bucked the cards.
However, extrapolating preference flows from an independent versus One Nation contest to a Labor versus One Nation contest may be questionable, as Labor is the traditional enemy of the Liberals and Nationals.
Other News
In the final results of the May 16 Queensland Stafford byelection, Labor defeated the Liberal National Party (LNP) by 51.4–48.6, a 4.0% swing to the LNP since the 2024 Queensland election. A recent Queensland DemosAU poll gave the LNP a 58–42 statewide lead, over 4% above their election result.
