The New South Wales government has delivered its fourth budget under Labor, with commuters, coal miners and essential workers emerging as winners, while the housing market, state debt and NDIS participants are among the losers. The budget offers limited relief for the housing crunch and forecasts significant spending on essential workers, but also warns of growing debt.
Winners: Commuters and Motorists
The flagship cost-of-living measure is a one-year $100 discount on private vehicle registration, saving NSW's 4.4 million motorists a combined $435 million. The weekly cap on road tolls will be cut from $60 to $50 for one year, costing $45 million, and toll administration fees—each at least $10—will be scrapped. Public transport fares, which have risen steadily in recent years, will be frozen for 2025, saving about 400,000 daily users an average of $100 each, forgoing $43.3 million in revenue. However, this relief does not match Queensland's 50-cent fares or Victoria's free or half-price options.
Winners: Gambling Operators
Big poker machine operators continue to benefit from tax breaks. Gaming machines in clubs are taxed at a lower rate than those in pubs, saving clubs $1.16 billion in 2026-27. Half of these breaks go to the top 6% of clubs that profit most from poker machines. ClubGRANTS rebates, tied to gaming machine profits, will rise to $84 million in 2026-27. The state collected an extra $86 million in gambling and betting taxes than expected in 2025-26, with total tax take expected to grow from $3.8 billion in 2025-26 to $4.7 billion in 2029-30, driven largely by taxes on pub gaming machines.
Winners: Coal Miners
The Middle East conflict has boosted thermal coal prices by over 20%, providing windfall revenues for NSW's 35 coal mines. The state expects an extra $84 million in royalties in the last few months alone, and $186 million over the coming financial year.
Winners: Essential Workers
The government highlights growth in hiring and wages for essential workers. NSW now has 70,895 nurses (up 6,556 since 2023) and 6,310 paramedics (up 986 since 2023). The budget allocates $10.3 billion to add 9,000 more health workers and provides a three-year pay rise of 16% for nurses and midwives. There are 86,512 teachers (up 2,263 since 2023) and 42,054 educational support staff (up 2,098 since 2023). Vacant teacher positions have dropped 71% from late 2022, from 3,311 to about 960. The police force grew 2% on 1 May with 249 new recruits, the largest class since 2012. Fire and Rescue NSW added 481 firefighters in the last six months, following 648 in the previous year. Starting salaries for registered nurses, teachers and paramedics have risen more than 20% since 2022-23.
Winners: Public Health Patients
The health system is expected to gain capacity for an extra 33,000 emergency department presentations and 2,900 planned surgeries per year. To reduce bed block, $35.7 million will fund an aged care pilot program to help older patients return home. A $11.9 billion investment will upgrade or build 32 hospitals, with $3.8 billion going to western Sydney.
Winners: Renewable Energy
Households with combined incomes below $210,000 can apply for interest-free loans of up to $15,000 for solar and energy-saving technology. Those on incomes up to $80,000 or concession card holders can get discounts of up to $4,000. An additional $225 million will go to infrastructure for the south-west renewable energy zone.
Losers: Housing Market
The budget offers little to boost housing supply. Approvals and completions are rising but remain low. NSW is running behind the federal target of 1.2 million homes by 2029, building just 258,000 of an expected 376,000 homes per year. Only $80 million in new funding is added to last year's developer finance guarantee for affordable housing. The slowdown in home sales due to interest rate rises and federal property investor tax reforms will cost the government $8.4 billion in lost revenue over four years. Stamp duty exemptions are projected to drop from $664 million to $600 million, implying a 10% fall in first home buyer activity.
Losers: State Debt
Gross debt is forecast to hit $200 billion in 2027-28, a threshold previously not expected. Debt is growing faster than gross state product (GSP), peaking at 20.7% of GSP in 2027-28 and holding at 20.5% by 2029-30, when gross debt will total $219 billion. This threatens NSW's credit rating and could lead to higher interest charges.
Losers: NDIS Participants
The federal government plans to cut 241,000 participants from the NDIS, but NSW says it cannot step in. NSW has allocated only $631.9 million over five years for the federal Thriving Kids program, which replaces supports for children with autism under nine removed from the NDIS. The program is set to start in October.
Losers: Gun Owners
While other states have pulled out of a gun buyback after the Bondi shooting, NSW is still working with the federal government on funding and parameters. The NSW firearms registry will receive $42.8 million over 10 years to tighten background checks and enforce tougher firearms laws, license restrictions and storage requirements.
Losers: Sharks and Feral Pigs
There is $16.3 million for regional pest control, with feral pigs as top priority. The shark management program will expand after recent attacks, funding smart drumlines, beach netting, surveillance drones and listening stations. A new office of animal welfare will be set up, with $13.7 million for the RSPCA and Animal Welfare League in 2026-27.
Losers: Fatberg-Clogged Waterways
A fatberg the size of four buses at the Malabar sewage treatment plant is believed to have caused the poo balls that closed Sydney beaches. Sydney Water is investing $3 billion over 10 years in the Malabar system, but independent price setting has limited funding. The budget adds no extra money to speed up solutions.
