The resignation of Sir Keir Starmer as British prime minister has set the stage for Andy Burnham, the newly elected Labour MP for Makerfield, to become the next UK leader. Burnham's landmark win in the June 18 byelection, where he fended off a challenge from the far-right Reform UK party, carries significant implications for the UK government. However, it also offers potential lessons for Australia's Albanese government in countering the rise of One Nation.
Parallels Between Australia and the UK
In both Australia and the United Kingdom, mainstream parties are losing ground to populist radical right challengers such as One Nation and Reform UK. Both have achieved notable successes in recent byelections and sub-national elections. One Nation posted a strong result in the Farrer byelection, while Reform UK now holds six seats in the House of Commons. In the March South Australian election, One Nation secured four lower house seats and three upper house seats. Meanwhile, in the UK's May local elections, Reform UK gained 1,452 councillor seats, contributing to Labour's worst local election defeat on record, with the party losing nearly 1,500 councillor seats nationwide.
Against this backdrop, Burnham's performance in Makerfield stands out. Despite being blocked from standing in the February byelection in Gorton and Denton, Burnham consolidated Labour's position, increasing its vote share by 9.6% to 54.8%. This bucked the national trend and provided a glimmer of hope for a beleaguered Labour party.
The Burnham Formula
Burnham's success can be attributed to several factors. He has been a nationally significant politician for three decades while maintaining strong local roots. His tenure as the first mayor of Greater Manchester, which includes Makerfield, has been widely praised. Burnham also offered voters an unusual proposition: vote for him as Labour MP to effectively remove a Labour prime minister. Given that Starmer recorded the lowest personal satisfaction rating since 1979, this message resonated with voters. Burnham positioned himself as an outsider promising change, in an almost populist fashion.
Burnham's approach to governance also offers lessons. He campaigned on a platform of hope, promising to unite the Labour Party. While Starmer adopted a centrist strategy that marginalized progressive factions, Burnham is expected to employ a more consultative and collegial leadership style. His agenda, though not fully detailed, is likely to shift Labour leftward on issues such as public control of transport, utilities, and housing. Burnham has been described as ideologically flexible, which may prove advantageous given the constraints of Labour's narrow 2024 manifesto and fiscal rules.
Lessons for Australia
Burnham's victory suggests that a consolidation of UK politics into left and right blocs is possible, despite the rise of challenger parties. In Makerfield, the Green and Liberal Democrat vote shares declined as Burnham surged, while the Conservative vote collapsed. Reform UK's total increased only marginally, and the far-right Restore party claimed 6.8%, indicating that right-wing vote splitting could hinder Reform UK's progress. A similar dynamic could emerge in Australia, where One Nation has consolidated radical and far-right votes but has a history of internal fractures.
For the Australian Labor Party, the lesson from Makerfield may be that reconnecting with traditional Labor values—such as improved workers' rights, a strong welfare state, and a commitment to fairness and equality—is key to electoral success. Unlike Starmer, Burnham has a more organic relationship with the labour movement, akin to that of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Both leaders openly discuss their Labor character; Burnham cites Everton Football Club, the Labour Party, and the Catholic Church as shaping his worldview, while Albanese references his “three great faiths”: the Catholic Church, the Australian Labor Party, and the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
Burnham's victory presents a roadblock for Reform UK, but it also offers a potential blueprint for Labor in Australia. By focusing on local roots, progressive policies, and a unifying leadership style, Labor may be able to counter the appeal of One Nation and other populist challengers.
