Energy Minister Chris Bowen has warned that a major fire at the Geelong oil refinery may impact domestic petrol production 'for some time,' as Australians assess the potential fallout on fuel prices. The blaze at the Viva Energy facility, which supplies over half of Victoria's fuel and 10% of Australia's, has forced output to be reduced to 'minimum rates' and triggered a trading halt on the Australian share market.
Energy analysts say Victorians can expect an immediate price shock, with potential national implications. Kevin Morrison from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis described the disruption as 'almost like a mini Strait of Hormuz closure,' noting that the refinery supplies about half of Victoria's daily fuel needs. Grattan Institute's Alison Reeve agreed, predicting a 'short-term price shock in Victoria' but said petrol is more replaceable than diesel or aviation fuel.
The fire comes amid ongoing global fuel supply pressures linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The Australian government has already implemented measures including a three-month fuel excise cut, release of fuel reserves, and a national fuel security plan currently at level two, which encourages public transport use. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic warned the fire will hamper these efforts, forcing the government to scramble for costly fuel imports and increasing the risk of shortages.
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan stated that current advice from the national fuel coordinator and federal government indicates supply remains sufficient to meet demand, but acknowledged that any supply changes would not be contained by state borders.
