The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released its long-range weather forecast for summer 2025, indicating a hotter-than-normal season for most of Australia. The forecast, which extends to the end of February, shows a greater than 80% chance of unusually high minimum temperatures, particularly at night.
BOM senior climatologist Felicity Gamble said the increased likelihood of warm overnight and daytime temperatures raises the chance of extreme heat. Coastal parts of New South Wales are the only areas expected to avoid the warmer trend.
November rainfall is likely to be above average for much of northern and eastern Australia, but the summer forecast shows only far north Queensland and Western Australia's Wheatbelt leaning toward wetter conditions. For other regions, the rainfall outlook remains uncertain due to conflicting climate drivers.
Record warm oceans around Australia, combined with major rain-bearing climate drivers, typically push toward a wetter spring and summer. However, a rare sudden stratospheric warming event over Antarctica favors dry and warm conditions for southern Australia, creating a 'tug of war' that will determine the dominant weather pattern.
Recent dry spells have led to soil drying across Victoria, New South Wales, and central and southern Queensland, increasing bushfire risk. Ms Gamble noted that abundant fuel growth from winter rainfall, followed by dry conditions, could heighten fire danger if the trend continues. The official bushfire outlook for summer will be released in late November.
Warm ocean temperatures may also intensify storms, as seen in recent large hail events in Queensland. While storms are difficult to predict far in advance, the extra moisture and energy from warm seas could make them more severe. However, the dry soil and unremarkable rainfall forecast may reduce the risk of riverine flooding.
