The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that Australia is now in an El Niño climate pattern, increasing the likelihood of a hot and dry summer and heightening bushfire danger. Dr. Karl Braganza, the BoM's manager of climate services, confirmed the event on Tuesday, noting it brings an increase in fire danger and extreme heat risk.
The announcement comes amid soaring temperatures and extreme fire danger across parts of south-east Australia. Total fire bans were declared for the New South Wales south coast and greater Sydney region on Tuesday, while bushfire evacuation orders were issued in parts of Queensland during the week.
Dr. Braganza said it is likely that this summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years. He added that modeling suggests the El Niño will persist until the end of summer. The strength of the event is not yet clear, but weak events have caused significant drought in the past.
The BoM had been on El Niño alert since June but waited for atmospheric coupling with ocean temperatures. In the last two weeks, the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific responded, meeting the third of four criteria needed for declaration. The Bureau also confirmed a positive Indian Ocean dipole event, which typically reduces spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia.
Climate and bushfire experts warn that drier and hotter conditions will raise bushfire risk. The previous three summers saw a triple La Niña, which encouraged large amounts of vegetation growth that could become fuel for fires. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council has issued an outlook showing increased risk over large parts of Queensland, NSW, Victoria, and the Northern Territory.
