Australia's population officially crossed the 28 million mark on Tuesday, driven by a surge led by Western Australia, even as record-low birth rates loom.
Population Milestone Reached
The Australian Bureau of Statistics population clock ticked past the staggering figure in the early hours of the morning. The clock runs on real-time calculations of estimated births, deaths, and net migration, registering an increase of one person every one minute and 15 seconds.
Western Australia Leads Growth
Western Australia is leading the national surge. According to ABS head of demography Phil Browning, the state recorded a nation-leading growth rate of 2.2 per cent from September 2024 to September 2025. In contrast, Tasmania had the slowest growth over the year, with a 0.3 per cent rise in population.
The Centre for Population accurately predicted WA's fast growth and Tasmania's slow growth in its population statement published last year.
Record-Low Birth Rates Projected
In its latest statement, the authority projected the national growth rate to slow to 1.3 per cent for the 2025-2026 period. This reflects an expected drop in net overseas migration alongside plummeting birth rates. The centre projected the national fertility rate would hit a record low of just 1.42 children per woman, falling well short of the 2.1 needed to sustain natural growth.
Migration Patterns Shift
After a peak in the 2022-2023 post-Covid period, net overseas migration returned to its pre-pandemic patterns in 2025-2026. The centre said that was largely driven by a drop in temporary arrivals, specifically those on student and visitor visas. For the 2025-2026 period, the population authority forecast a net overseas migration of 260,000.
