A large-sample Redbridge poll conducted June 17-28 with 5,516 respondents has One Nation leading the Victorian primary vote at 27%, up three points since February, while Labor and the Coalition are tied at 26% each (Labor up one, Coalition down two). The Greens are steady at 13%, and Others dropped two points to 8%.
Two-Party Preferred and Three-Party Breakdown
By respondent preferences, the Coalition leads Labor 54-46 (a two-point gain for Coalition), but Labor leads One Nation 52-48 (a one-point gain for One Nation). In a three-party preferred measure combining Greens and Others preferences, Labor leads with 39.9%, Coalition at 30.1%, and One Nation at 29.9%.
Leader Favourability and Party Focus
Premier Jacinta Allan has a net favourability of -42 (59% unfavourable, 17% favourable). The Financial Review notes that all ten premiers with net approval of -31 or worse in Newspoll lost the next election, resigned, or were ousted. Liberal leader Jess Wilson has a net favourability of +13 (31% favourable, 18% unfavourable). Pauline Hanson's net favourability among Victorians is -9 (46% unfavourable, 37% favourable). On whether parties focus on the right issues, the Liberals score +7 (39-32 agree), One Nation at net zero (40-40), Greens at -12 (42-30 disagree), and Labor at -17 (49-32 disagree).
Upper House Implications
All 40 upper house seats are elected via proportional representation in eight five-member regions. If lower house results translate, right-wing parties would win three of five seats in seven regions and two in Northern Metropolitan, securing 23 of 40 seats. The poll shows One Nation and Coalition combined above 50% in six regions and 49% in one other. The author criticises Labor for not abolishing the group voting ticket system during 12 years in power. ABC's Antony Green notes the electoral commission needs a law change by August, but only one sitting week remains in late July.
Newspoll Federal Aggregate April-June
The Australian's aggregate of four polls from April 12 to June 26 (sample 4,962) shows national primary votes: Labor 31% (down one), One Nation 28% (up three), Coalition 19% (down one), Greens 12% (steady), Others 10% (down one). By state: NSW Labor 31% (steady), One Nation 29% (up two), Coalition 16% (down two), Greens 13% (up one). Victoria Labor 28% (down four), One Nation 25% (up four), Coalition 21% (down one), Greens 14% (steady). Queensland One Nation 32% (up two), Labor 30% (up three), Coalition 22% (down one), Greens 9% (down two). WA Labor 32% (down two), One Nation 26% (down one), Coalition 22% (up two), Greens 12% (up three). SA Labor 32% (down seven), One Nation 32% (up five), Coalition 16% (up three), Greens 14% (up two). Education breakdown: Without tertiary education, One Nation 33% (down one), Labor 27% (steady), Coalition 20% (up one), Greens 12% (steady). TAFE education: One Nation 36% (up six), Labor 28% (down one), Coalition 16% (down three), Greens 10% (steady). University education: Labor 38% (up two), Coalition 20% (down one), One Nation 17% (up one), Greens 14% (up one). The slumps in Victoria and SA are attributed to unpopular state Labor government in Victoria and post-election normalisation in SA.
Morgan Poll: One Nation Slumps Again
A Morgan poll June 29-July 5 (sample 1,584) gives Labor 28% primary (steady), One Nation 22.5% (down 3.5), Coalition 21.5% (steady), Greens 14% (up one), Others 14% (up 2.5). By respondent preferences, Labor leads One Nation 56-44 (three-point gain for Labor) and Coalition 55-45 (1.5-point gain). Using 2025 election preference flows, Labor leads Coalition 54-46 (1.5-point gain). One Nation's primary has fallen nine points from a high of 31.5% in mid-June, and Labor's two-party lead over One Nation expanded from 51-49 to 56-44. Combined Coalition and One Nation primary dropped from 49% to 44%.
Essential Poll Additional Questions
In late June Essential poll, Donald Trump receives 62-28 unfavourable rating, down eight points since July 2024. Views on other countries: most negative on Iran (57-11 negative), Russia (57-13), Syria (44-14), Israel (45-19), Palestine (41-20), China (39-24), US (40-29), India (29-24). Positive perceptions: Indonesia (31-20), Ukraine (41-20), European nations (47-14), UK (53-16).
