Australia's migration debate often reduces to a numbers game, with politicians offering vastly different targets. Clive Palmer advocates for zero migration, while Pauline Hanson suggests around 130,000. Angus Taylor ties migration to dwelling completions at 175,000, and Anthony Albanese points to Treasury's long-term estimate of 225,000. One Nation's David Farley is content with 306,000. This wide range underscores a lack of consensus, driven by both political and policy factors.
The current state of migration
Discussions centre on net overseas migration (NOM), which was 301,000 in 2025 according to preliminary ABS data, down from 330,000 in 2024 and 530,000 in 2023. The relatively small decline from 2024 to 2025 has led some to conclude NOM is settling around 300,000. However, this ignores significant fluctuations within the figure.
For instance, working holiday maker departures increased by over 12,000 between 2024 and 2025, while Australian citizens contributed an extra 7,000 to NOM in the same period. Movements of New Zealand citizens, over which the government has little control, also vary greatly. If New Zealanders are excluded from both 2025 and 2019 calculations, the figures are similar: 264,000 in 2025 versus 241,000 in 2019.
It is crucial to note that the 2025 NOM figure is a preliminary estimate based on statistical algorithms that change regularly. The final figure will not be known until June 2027, making NOM a shaky foundation for migration debate.
Housing and temporary migration
The housing debate exemplifies how NOM can be a blunt instrument. Temporary migrants, a major NOM component, are only a small part of the housing purchase market. Most, especially international students, are concentrated in big cities near universities, affecting rental markets locally in Sydney and Melbourne.
Many temporary migrants are highly skilled workers Australia wishes to attract. ABS data for 2025 shows 176,000 migration arrivals of New Zealand citizens, temporary skilled workers, and working holiday makers, compared to only 33,000 permanent skilled worker arrivals. Researchers Alan Gamlen and I estimate about half a million skilled jobs are filled by temporary migrants, making the economy dependent on them in sectors like aged care, agriculture, and hospitality. The temporary migrant population has grown annually since 2013.
While temporary migrants add to rental demand, this must be weighed against their economic contributions.
A need for planning
The central problem is that migration levels are treated as an input to planning rather than an output. Treasury budgets and intergenerational reports assume a future migration level and then analyze what is required. Instead, migration levels across visa types should be outcomes determined through sophisticated planning that incorporates labour demand, university financing, housing, infrastructure, and energy. Agencies like Treasury and the Productivity Commission can model these outcomes.
Rather than focusing only on numbers, attention should be paid to who is temporarily here, whether they will stay, and systems to help them become permanent residents if they choose. Canada adopted a temporary migration target without adequate modelling, leading to population decline and harm to international student numbers. Australia must plan carefully.
The 2026 census will provide detailed data on the temporary population, available in about 12 months. Meanwhile, policymakers should design the modelling needed to plan appropriate migration levels. Different components will inevitably conflict—labour demand versus housing supply, for example—but at least the underlying information will be transparent. The level chosen remains a political decision, but the values and facts behind it will be clear.
