A dramatic public response to the federal budget has reshaped the political landscape, driving a major realignment in primary votes according to a new poll. The latest AFR/Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll shows One Nation’s primary vote increased by four percentage points to 31 per cent over the past month, while Labor’s primary support decreased by three percentage points to 28 per cent.
One Nation Surges Ahead of Labor
RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras said the two-party system most Australians grew up with was “gone”. “The real contest, unless something changes by 2028, now runs between Labor and One Nation, and the Coalition is a spectator in the stands … eating doughnuts,” he said. The Coalition’s primary vote dropped from 22 per cent to 20 per cent.
The survey of 1005 voters, taken between May 25 and May 28, followed the introduction of budget measures that altered previous policies regarding capital gains tax, negative gearing, and trusts.
Voter Sentiment Turns Negative
Redbridge director Tony Barry told the AFR the data indicated 63 per cent of respondents now view the country as heading in the wrong direction. “The downstream effects of the budget and another interest rate rise is Labor have lost more vote share, but the Coalition aren’t the beneficiaries on a primary vote basis,” Mr Barry said. “With almost two-thirds of the electorate now saying Australia is heading in the wrong direction, that pervasive negative mood sentiment is fuelling more anti-establishment support and a view among a growing cohort of voters that the answer lies outside established norms and major parties.”
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor’s lead over One Nation narrowed from 55-45 per cent in the previous poll to 51-49 per cent. When measured against the Coalition, Labor holds a 51-49 per cent lead, which adjusts to 52-48 per cent when applying the preference allocation from the 2025 election.
Leadership Ratings Shift
The personal ratings of political leaders also shifted. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net favourability decreased by 10 points to minus 19 per cent, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers fell to minus 18 per cent. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s rating moved from minus 2 to minus 4 per cent. Conversely, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net favourability rose by one point to zero.
Reflecting on these leadership dynamics, Mr Samaras said “the favourability numbers explain how we got here”. “This is an electorate sorting itself into camps that barely speak to each other,” Mr Samaras said. “Albanese is anchored in the Labor base and underwater almost everywhere else. Hanson is the mirror image, locked in with her own bloc and toxic with the other side. Two leaders, each loved and loathed in roughly equal measure, each unable to reach across the line.”
Preferred Prime Minister Stakes
In the preferred prime minister stakes, Mr Albanese’s lead over Senator Hanson narrowed to 31 per cent versus 25 per cent, while Mr Taylor remained at 14 per cent. Speaking to Sky News on Sunday, Senator Hanson indicated she was prepared for leadership and was considering a transition from the Senate. “Do I want to be prime minister? Well, I tell you what, I won’t knock the job … because I believe that I have the ability to do it,” Ms Hanson said. She said a move to the House of Representatives was “in consideration, by all means”.
Systemic Vulnerabilities Exposed
According to Mr Samaras, the shifting political landscape reveals deep systemic vulnerabilities. “The damage is not symmetrical, and that is the part the major parties keep missing,” Mr Samaras said. “Labor has bled support to the minor parties (others), voters drifting left and sideways. The Coalition has bled something heavier, straight into One Nation, even after the budget. Look at where Hanson is net positive: Liberal voters, LNP voters, the Coalition’s own right flank. She is not just nibbling at the edges of their base but having nice pizza slice bites at it.”
Demographic Reactions to Budget
The poll also indicates the budget faced a mixed reception across demographic groups. Among younger cohorts, 13 per cent of Generation Z and 26 per cent of Millennials stated the budget would be good for them personally. Overall, 23 per cent of respondents felt the budget would benefit the nation, compared to 55 per cent who believed it would not.
Regarding specific policy areas, the Coalition now leads Labor on economic management by 28 per cent to 22 per cent. On the issue of the cost of living, Labor holds a single-point lead over One Nation at 21 per cent to 20 per cent, which represents a statistical tie.
While Labor’s single-month decline falls within the poll’s 3.4 per cent margin of error, its primary vote has shown a downward trend since registering at 36 per cent in December. The tracked policy changes include a restructuring of the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount from July 2027, replacing it with an inflation-indexed model that implements a minimum 30 per cent rate on real gains without five-year averaging. Additionally, negative gearing will be restricted to newly constructed properties, accompanied by a standard $1000 tax deduction and an annual $250 Working Australians Tax Offset starting in 2027–28.
