One Nation has overtaken Labor and the Coalition as the most popular party for the first time in history, according to a bombshell new poll by Redbridge Group and Accent Research. The party surged to 31 percent in primary vote, while Labor fell to 28 percent and the Coalition trailed at 20 percent.
Barnaby Joyce responds
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said the result was an "incredible honour" but cautioned against overinterpreting the poll. "It's an incredible honour, but (the polls) are an indicator, they are not a vote," Mr Joyce told Sky News on Monday. "And really they're just a cue to us to realise that the Australian people have changed and we've got to rise to the challenge. But let's not get way ahead of ourselves. That is for the Australian people to decide. And you know, we'll just keep working as we are."
Mr Joyce, who defected to One Nation from the Nationals, said he was considering running for the lower house seat of New England again after previously declaring he would run for the Senate in 2028. "I'm very confident at the moment that the people of New England would want me to represent them again," he said. "I'll make and others will make that decision as we get closer (to the next election)."
Poll details
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor’s lead over One Nation narrowed from 55 percent to 45 percent in the previous poll to just 51-49. Labor's primary vote fell three percent after breaking election promises not to touch capital gains tax or negative gearing.
Labor and Coalition downplay result
Senior Labor and Coalition figures have played down the implications of Pauline Hanson’s growing support. Labor’s Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Matt Thistlethwaite said the poll reflected economic dissatisfaction rather than an endorsement of Ms Hanson. "I think that poll reflects the fact that many Australians, particularly workers, are feeling the pressure at the moment," he said. "I think that they, a lot of them, think that the current system is broken, that no matter how hard they work, they can't get ahead. They're particularly frustrated with the taxation system and the housing market. But that's exactly what Labor is acting to fix."
Mr Thistlethwaite also rejected suggestions Australia was witnessing the collapse of the traditional two-party system. "Well, I don't think so. I think that, you know, Labor and our values are something that accord with the Australian people," he said.
Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume similarly dismissed speculation the Coalition would need to form a formal arrangement with One Nation to regain power. "No, that is not on the plan, it's not part of the plan," Ms Hume said when asked whether the Coalition would need a partnership with One Nation at the next election. "The plan is that we will demonstrate that the Coalition is the only alternative for Australians, the only option for Australians to get Labor out of office."
Asked about the likelihood of Ms Hanson becoming prime minister, the Liberal Senator said: "It's certainly not something that I've ever considered." She said she could see a government led by Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, despite Mr Taylor trailing both Mr Albanese and Ms Hanson as preferred prime minister. Mr Albanese was the most popular national leader on 31 percent, followed by Ms Hanson on 25 percent and then Mr Taylor on 14 percent.
Coalition figures differ on approach
Shadow energy minister Dan Tehan adopted a more conciliatory approach to One Nation, saying the centre-right needed to work together. "My view has always been that all the parties in the centre-right need to work together if we are going to be able to defeat the Labor Party," Mr Tehan said. "We've got to make sure as a Coalition that we are focused on the Labor Party and making sure we're taking Labor Party seats away."
Pauline Hanson ready for Prime Minister
His comments came after Ms Hanson declared she was ready to be Prime Minister on Sunday. "Do I want to be Prime Minister? Well, I tell you what, I won’t knock the job because I believe that I have the ability to do it," she said. "I’m not going to underestimate myself or say, 'no, I can’t do it,' because you know, have a look at what we’ve got now. That’s why we’re in a mess."
Ms Hanson added that running for a seat in the House of Representatives, rather than the Senate, was "in consideration" for the 2028 election. "It is in consideration by all means, it is in the mix but I'm not making a decision now... It will be based on political strategy as well," she said.
Ms Hanson went on to describe the Albanese government as the "worst" she had ever seen in her 30 years of politics. "I see the destruction that's happened here. We've lost over 1400 industries, manufacturing, 50,000 small businesses gone insolvent," she said. "This isn't the country that I grew up in. So, whether it's Pauline Hanson as Prime Minister ... we've got someone else to take on that job."
