The weekend exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel has placed US President Donald Trump under mounting domestic and international pressure to conclude the unpopular war he initiated alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over three months ago.
Netanyahu's War Aims
The Israeli leader favors prolonging the conflict until Iran is significantly weakened. This strategy would bolster his chances in Israel's general elections later this year and advance his vision of expanding Israel's borders and regional dominance, often referred to as "Greater Israel." Netanyahu opposes any US-Iran agreement that does not align with his objectives. Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon to counter the Iran-backed Hezbollah group is part of this broader plan, which Iran has boldly countered.
Iran's Resilience
Tehran has demonstrated remarkable resilience, aiming to settle the war in its favor as a dominant regional actor. Trump now faces the difficult task of reaching an acceptable deal with Iran while restraining Netanyahu.
Why the Standoff Has Prolonged
At this stage, what would constitute a "victory" for Trump? He seeks an outcome that justifies his decision to start the war, which has proven costly, triggering a global energy crisis and widespread economic hardship. The war could also hurt Trump's political standing in the upcoming midterm elections. He desires an agreement on Iran's nuclear program that he can claim surpasses the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which he withdrew the US in 2018.
However, Iran's Islamic government has refused to bend to Trump's demands. Relying on ideological devotion to Shia Islam, historical nationalism, and effective military capabilities, the regime has not only survived but made strategic gains. It has destroyed or damaged numerous US bases in the Persian Gulf, struck Israel with missiles and drones, and crucially, gained control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait—a vital chokepoint for oil and fertilizer shipments—has become Iran's most potent tool for resistance and punishment. Global oil and gas shipments have slowed dramatically since Iran tightened its grip.
Domestic Gains for Iran
The conflict has revitalized the Islamic government and its institutions. Many citizens who previously opposed the regime have rallied around the flag due to external threats and national pride. The war has also elevated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, designated a terrorist organization by the US and its allies, proving its worth as the defender of Iran and its Islamic system.
Tehran is not as isolated as the Trump administration believes. It enjoys support from Russia and China, and its geographic location allows access to markets via roads through neighboring countries and the Caspian Sea.
The US and Israel retain military superiority and can inflict heavy damage, but Iran's strategic gains have strengthened its bargaining position. No amount of US military or economic pressure is likely to force Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program or relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz. The regime, built on defiance, resistance, and pragmatic decision-making, has the patience to outlast Trump and Netanyahu.
Echoes of 1979
The regime has a history of outlasting the US. Parallels exist between how Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini handled the 1979–81 hostage crisis—when militants ransacked the US embassy and took 66 Americans hostage—and how his successors now manage negotiations with the US.
Khomeini allowed the crisis to drag on for 444 days to consolidate power and humiliate the US for supporting the pro-Western monarchy of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. This contributed to President Jimmy Carter's defeat by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election. The remaining 52 hostages were released minutes after Reagan's inauguration in January 1981.
The current standoff is only 100 days old, and Iran appears ready to employ a similar strategy to punish Trump and Netanyahu. Iran's leaders are determined to turn the tables and humiliate their adversaries. Whether they succeed depends on Trump's next moves and his willingness to compromise for a lasting, mutually acceptable agreement.
