The recent announcement that Australia will acquire three used US submarines instead of two used and one new has reignited debate over the AUKUS defence pact. Signed in 2021 between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, AUKUS aims to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. However, the plan has faced scrutiny over costs, timelines, and capability. A former Navy anti-submarine warfare specialist answers the most common questions.
Why is Australia buying used submarines?
Australia's Collins-class submarines, in service since 1996-2003, are ageing. Decades of delays and underfunding have left the fleet needing replacement before new Australian-built submarines are ready under AUKUS. The purchase of three Virginia-class submarines in 2032, 2035, and 2038 provides a stopgap. These used boats allow Australia to start operating nuclear-powered submarines sooner, following a 'crawl, walk, run' approach. The Virginias represent the walk phase before building indigenous submarines. Acquiring existing vessels reduces risk, complexity, and certification trials.
Is Australia getting a less capable submarine?
Not in any meaningful sense. The three Block IV Virginia-class submarines are among the world's most capable attack subs, carrying over 20 torpedoes and 12 Tomahawk missiles. Contrary to some reports, the third submarine will not lack the Virginia Payload Module for extra missiles, as it was never intended to have it. Australia will primarily use these subs for anti-submarine and anti-ship roles, not land strike. The main drawback is the third boat will have fewer years of life remaining—over 20 years, not the eight some claim, as these subs entered service only in 2020.
Are we paying $368 billion for three used submarines?
The $368 billion figure covers costs through 2055, including infrastructure, workforce, maintenance, the Virginia purchase, and building Australian submarines. About $244 billion is projected cost, with $122.9 billion as a 50% contingency—much higher than the typical 5-10% for defence projects. The Department of Defence's 2026 Integrated Investment Program estimates nuclear-powered submarines will cost $71-96 billion over the next decade, representing 8-11% of projected defence spending of $887 billion.
Can the US build enough submarines for Australia?
This is a legitimate concern. US submarine production dropped after the Cold War, and despite a goal of two per year, it averaged 1.9 from 2016-19 before falling to 1.3 due to COVID and workforce issues. The US is investing billions to boost production, with Admiral Daryl Caudle expecting two per year by 2032 and a need for 2.3 to meet 2054 goals including Australia's three boats. However, the US has not said it will refuse to sell if production targets are missed.
Is AUKUS risky?
Yes. AUKUS is Australia's most complex defence project, with risks in US and UK industrial bases, workforce, infrastructure, and funding. But much has been achieved in under five years: a submarine base near Perth, embedded personnel, infrastructure works, trained personnel, and US congressional approval. At the recent AUKUS Defence Ministers' Meeting, all three nations stated the program is on track. Not every adjustment is evidence of failure.
What happens if Australia abandons AUKUS?
Australia cannot easily walk away and pick another submarine. Any alternative would require a new acquisition process, agreement, and years of negotiation. No obvious replacement exists; France's nuclear subs take over a decade to build. Cancelling a second submarine program with a close ally would damage Australia's reputation. AUKUS should be scrutinised with facts, and any proposal to abandon it must explain how to avoid a capability gap. Partner nations' main concern is Australian political will, not US or UK industrial capacity.
