Prediction market apps Kalshi and Polymarket are taking a firm stance against paid content creators who spread election misinformation, requiring them to remove posts denying election results or risk losing sponsorship. This move comes as online influencers propagate unfounded claims about California's recent primary election.
New Policies on Election Integrity
According to NPR technology reporter Bobby Allyn, Kalshi now explicitly prohibits paid creators from questioning the integrity or accuracy of an election, legal ruling, or official determination related to an election. Similarly, Polymarket has updated its terms of service to state that any affiliate post denying an election result would violate policies against spreading false and misleading information. The company has already requested that two of its paid affiliates remove partnership tags from such posts.
Specific Incidents of Misinformation
Last week, Kalshi asked influencers promoting its site to take down posts spreading election misinformation. One example involved commentator David Freeman, a Trump supporter, who claimed in a video: "Let's talk about California for a second. You know they're cheating. I know they're cheating. You know they're cheating. We all know they're cheating."
Polymarket also took action against two creators. Conservative influencer Benny Johnson posted that LA mayoral candidate Nithya Raman's odds improved on the site because "the public has so little faith in California's elections that they just assume Democrats are going to dramatically rig it." Rightwing streamer Kangmin Lee, in another paid partnership post, stated: "Notice how the mail-in ballots that come in last second always end up voting Democrat. Totally a coincidence, nothing to see here."
Background on Prediction Markets
Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade on outcomes of various events, including sports, geopolitical conflicts, and elections. While banned in some countries like Spain under gambling laws, these platforms operate widely across the United States, even in states where gambling has long been prohibited. US politics have become a frequent target for bets on these markets.
Legal and Regulatory Scrutiny
Last week, federal authorities began investigating whether former Republican congressman George Santos engaged in insider trading by placing a Kalshi bid on his own attendance at the State of the Union address. In April, Kalshi disclosed reprimanding three political candidates who traded on their own electoral prospects. In March, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing it of unlawfully allowing bets on elections.
Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Additionally, Truth Social, the president's social media platform, is developing its own prediction market called Truth Predict.
Unfounded Claims of Election Fraud
Since California's primary election last week, Trump and other Republicans have begun spreading unfounded claims of election fraud. The state has a long-standing practice of counting ballots slowly to ensure a careful verification process and allow voters to correct errors on their ballots.
